Perceptions of social consensus at the regional level relate to prioritization and support of climate policy in Maryland
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Perceptions of social consensus at the regional level relate to prioritization and support of climate policy in Maryland, USA Elizabeth J. Ban Rohring 1
&
Karen L. Akerlof 2
Received: 13 January 2019 / Accepted: 5 May 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract While considerable research has investigated the importance of the public’s understanding of the scientific consensus on climate change beliefs and policy support, only recently have scholars begun to evaluate the role of social consensus perceptions, e.g., what others in the same group think. People receive information about these norms directly from social interactions, such as with neighbors and friends, but also indirectly from media, as in reporting on national public opinion statistics. We assess how well the public understands the level of social consensus across different geographic scales—regional, state, and national—and test whether understanding these norms differentially relates to climate and energy policy support. Among a representative sample of Maryland adults surveyed in 2015 (n = 1547), nearly half underestimated the extent of the social consensus about climate change within their region, state, and country. Individuals’ consensus perceptions were significantly related to the true social consensus—estimated through survey data—at the regional scale; however, the size of the relationship was small. We found that consensus perceptions across all geographic levels related to support for climate policy, as mediated by climate belief certainty. But perceptions of social consensus at smaller spatial scales—e.g., regional—appear to have larger effects on public opinion. The results of this study suggest both the importance—and limitations—of geographies of social consensus and the role of attitudinal certainty as a mediator for this relationship. Conveying localized social consensus information may promote public support of climate policy. Keywords Social consensus . Public opinion . Climate and energy policy . Belief certainty
Introduction While most people would never admit it (Schultz et al. 2007), their attitudes are strongly influenced by perceptions of the beliefs and behaviors of others in their social group. When these beliefs and behaviors represent social group norms, they can be even more influential (Visser and Mirabile 2004;
Communicated by Diana Sietz Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01652-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Elizabeth J. Ban Rohring [email protected] 1
Department of Communication, George Mason University, 4400 University Dr., MS 3D6, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
2
Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, 4400 University, Dr., MS 5F2, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
Bandura 2006; Schultz et al. 2007; Hoffman 2015). The more homogenous a social group, the more likely certain beliefs or attitudes will predominate, bolsterin
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