Plan Prediction Which Policy is Preferred by Which People?
This book develops an innovative system, in the form of an "app", that harnesses the power of the internet to predict which sorts of people will prefer which policy in ANY planning situation.It chronicles the accumulated research wisdom behind the sy
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Plan Prediction Which Policy is Preferred by Which People?
Plan Prediction
Ray Wyatt
Plan Prediction Which Policy is Preferred by Which People?
123
Ray Wyatt School of Geography The University of Melbourne Melbourne Australia
ISBN 978-3-319-46429-9 DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-46430-5
ISBN 978-3-319-46430-5
(eBook)
Library of Congress Control Number: 2016954589 © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To my parents
Preface
Why would anyone want to predict people’s plans? There are several reasons. Firstly, humankind faces many problems, ranging from international conflict and global warming, through crime prevention and drug rehabilitation, all the way down to what to wear today and how to eat tonight. Secondly, although governments, companies and institutions pay professional planners handsomely to plan our way out of society’s problems, they cannot do this. Humans are too mysterious, unreliable and perverse for any planner to be able to select a plan which is perfect, or even tolerable for everyone. Thirdly, if planners could somehow predict which plans will be popular and adopted, and which plans will be unpopular and sabotaged, then they would at least have much more empathy with the planned for. They would plan much more sympathetically and so their success level would skyrocket. So, in a nutshell, this book is predicated upon a few core beliefs: 1. optimal planning is impossible 2. plan prediction will bring us closer to it 3. plan prediction is probably possible, but this needs to be scientifically tested. As such, this text contrasts to most of the unscientific, strategic-planning literature. The latter tends to be strong on hubris, self-boosting and hyperbole. Very little of it is ever
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