Population Dynamics in Muslim Countries Assembling the Jigsaw

The book discusses the demographic changes in Muslim countries. It thereby focuses on topics such as the demographic dividend and the demographic transition, labour market challenges, health care, universal education and gender issues. These challenges ar

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Hans Groth • Alfonso Sousa-Poza Editors

Population Dynamics in Muslim Countries Assembling the Jigsaw

Editors Hans Groth University of St. Gallen and WDA Forum St. Gallen Switzerland

Alfonso Sousa-Poza Institute for Health Care & Public Management University of Hohenheim Stuttgart Germany and WDA Forum St. Gallen Switzerland

ISBN 978-3-642-27880-8 e-ISBN 978-3-642-27881-5 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-27881-5 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2012935229 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

Contents

Part I

Introduction and Overview

1

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Hans Groth and Alfonso Sousa-Poza

2

Fertility Decline in the Muslim World, c. 1975–c. 2005: A Veritable Sea-Change, Still Curiously Unnoticed . . . . . . . . . . . Nicholas Eberstadt and Apoorva Shah

Part II 3

4

Women’s Education and Fertility in Islamic Countries . . . . . . . . Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi and Fatemeh Torabi

5

Family-Based Old-Age Care in Arab Countries: Between Tradition and Modernity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Abla Mehio Sibai and Rouham Yamout

6

11

Topics and Issues

Where Are All the Jobs? Capturing the Demographic Dividend in Islamic Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gavin W. Jones

Part III

3

31 43

63

Country and Regional Studies

Pakistan’s Population Prospects, 2010–2030: A Glass Half Full or Half Empty? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Zeba A. Sathar

79

7

Demographic Transition in Iran: Changes and Challenges . . . . . . Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi and Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi

97

8

Demographic Profile of Turkey: Specifics and Challenges . . . . . . Banu Erg€ oc¸men

117

v

vi

9

10

11

Contents

Changes in the Demographic Profile of the Egyptian Population: Prospects and Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Zeinab Khadr

131

Demographic Transition and Gender Systems: The Case of Jordan and Yemen