Post-mortem surveillance of bovine tuberculosis in Ireland: herd-level variation in the probability of herds disclosed w
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Post-mortem surveillance of bovine tuberculosis in Ireland: herd-level variation in the probability of herds disclosed with lesions at routine slaughter to have skin test reactors at follow-up test Andrew W. Byrne 1
&
Damien Barrett 1 & Philip Breslin 2 & Jamie M. Madden 3 & James O’Keeffe 2 & Eoin Ryan 2
Received: 19 May 2020 / Accepted: 17 June 2020 # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Post-mortem surveillance in Ireland discloses skin-test negative cattle with presumptive evidence of infection of Mycobacterium bovis (lesions at routine slaughter (LRS)), the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). Laboratory confirmation of lesions has impacts on trade restrictions for herds, therefore if laboratory capacity was diminished, how herds are treated would require an informed risk policy. Here we report the proportion of herds with subsequent evidence of within-herd transmission, based on skin-test results. We assess how herd-size, herd-type, and bTB-history affect the probability of additional reactors at follow-up test using univariable and multivariable random-effects models. The study represents a rapid response to developing an evidential base for policy demands during an extraordinary event, the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland. A dataset from 2005 to 2019 of breakdowns were collated. Overall, 20,116 breakdowns were initiated by LRS cases. During the index tests of these breakdowns, 3931 revealed ≥1 skin-test reactor animals (19.54%; ≥1 standard reactors: 3827; 19.02%). Increasing herd-size was associated with reactor disclosure on follow-up. For small herds (137) disclosed ≥1 reactors. Beef (13.87%) and “other” (13%) herd production types had lower proportion of index tests with reactors in comparison with dairy (28.27%) or suckler (20.48%) herds. Historic breakdown size during the previous 3-years was associated reactor disclosure risk on follow-up. Our results are useful for rapid tailored policy development aimed at identifying higher risk herds. Keywords Bovine tuberculosis . Evidence-based policy . Disease control . Veterinary epidemiology
Introduction Post-mortem (PM) confirmation of infection of Mycobacterium bovis has been extensively studied in cattle herds, including the Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11259-020-09777-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Andrew W. Byrne [email protected] 1
One-Health Scientific Support Unit, SAT Division, Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Agriculture House, Dublin 2, Ireland
2
Ruminant Animal Health Division, Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Backweston, Co. Dublin, Ireland
3
Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis (CVERA), School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
presence of pathology (visible lesions) and the culturing of the pathogen (Byrne et al. 2017; Milne et al. 2019; Shittu et al. 2013; Murray et al. 2012), as part of bovine tub
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