Potential copper production through 2035 in Chile
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Potential copper production through 2035 in Chile Gustavo Lagos 1
&
David Peters 1 & Marcos Lima 1 & José Joaquín Jara 1
Received: 30 October 2019 / Accepted: 18 May 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract In the long term, primary and secondary supply of refined copper satisfies demand. Numerous models exist to explain and predict demand and secondary supply; however, the projection of primary supply relies mostly on detailed knowledge of potential mining projects and on existing ore reserves and resources. Much discussion has occurred historically regarding the availability of resources and reserves for the future. Chile, being the largest copper producer, also has the largest reserves in the world; therefore, it retains its potential to be a key player in future supply. This article explores some of the most relevant resource and technological challenges that may emerge with an accelerated development of brownfield and greenfield copper mining projects in Chile through 2035, without considering economic, regulatory, and environmental constraints. A “Full Scenario” was created to accommodate these conditions and restrictions. It includes estimates of future ore reserves, copper production, plant capacity, ore grades, energy and water consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and generation of tailings. Maximum production would exceed 10 million tons of contained copper from 2027 to 2030, with a resulting decrease of ore grades and the growth of energy and water consumption. The growth of indirect GHG emissions through 2035 is estimated at 18.4% less than copper production growth, because all new electric energy for this scenario would be based on renewable energy. Also, all new water used by 38 out of the 42 mining projects considered would be seawater, and some of the continental water used in 2019 would cease to be used in mining. Keywords Copper production . Chile . Scenario 2035 . Energy . Water . GHG
Introduction While there are numerous theoretical models regarding future copper refined demand (Paley Commission 1952; Meadows et al. 1972; Fisher et al. 1972; Tan 1987; Vial 1988; Ayres et al. 2002; Valencia 2005; Elshkaki et al. 2016; Schipper Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-020-00227-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Gustavo Lagos [email protected] David Peters [email protected] Marcos Lima [email protected] José Joaquín Jara [email protected] 1
Department of Mining Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago, Chile
et al. 2018) and of secondary refined production (Fisher et al. 1972; Slade 1980; Tan 1987; Vial 1988; Valencia 2005; Gomez et al. 2007; Fu et al. 2017), very few primary supply theoretical models were found in the literature (Fisher et al. 1972; Tan 1987; Vial 1988). The production function (Cobb and Douglas 1928) was applied in these models to estimate primary production, but
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