Predication of the Industrial Growth Rate in 2014 and Analysis and Report on the Industrial Prospect Index and the Early
In 2014, China’s industrial production growth was an apparent fallout, the growth of industrial investments continued to slow down, exports of industrial production maintained a moderate rate, profitability of industrial enterprises continued to improve,
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Predication of the Industrial Growth Rate in 2014 and Analysis and Report on the Industrial Prospect Index and the Early Warning Index Xie Sanming
Abstract In 2014, China’s industrial production growth was an apparent fallout, the growth of industrial investments continued to slow down, exports of industrial production maintained a moderate rate, profitability of industrial enterprises continued to improve, the contradiction between the supply and demand of industrial products became more intense, and industrial electricity consumption declined significantly. There were the following advantages in industrial growth: more prompt macroeconomic regulation and control, satisfactory consumption which came about from the situation of stable employment and steady prices, reform measures effectively promoting the growth of new-type enterprises and new business, and the expanding production and business activities. However, there were also some adverse factors, such as, a continually downward trend in investments, restricted enterprise production space during destocking, insufficient foreign demand because of the bad situation of the world’s economy, and problems in the operations of the enterprise. According to the analysis of the synthetic index of industrial prosperity, expectedly in 2015, the growth rate of the annual added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size is expected to reach around 8.6%. Keywords Industrial growth
Industrial prosperity index Warning index
In August, 2014, there appeared great fluctuations in the major indexes in the industrial economy, with a significant change in some of the industrial indexes. The industrial coincident composite index dropped amidst stability, the composite index of the leading economic indicators continued to decrease, the early warning index dropped slightly during the middle and lower part of the “normal” range and the industrial economy showed an overall downward trend. It was expected that in the third quarter of 2014, the industrial growth rate would slow down and in the fourth quarter, it would keep operating in a relatively stable growth range. X. Sanming (&) Supervision Division, the Department of Operation Monitoring, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Beijing, China © Social Sciences Academic Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017 Y. Li et al. (eds.), Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015), Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-5654-3_6
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X. Sanming
In combination of the forecast outcome of the model from the research institution and the current situation of the industrial operation, it was expected that the year-to-year increase rate of the added value of the industry in the third quarter of 2014 would be around 8.2%, in the fourth quarter, around 8.8% and the annual growth rate would be around 8.6%.
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Analysis of the Situation of the Industrial Economic Operations Obvious Decrease of the Growth Rate in the Industrial Production
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