Predicting Movie Success at the Box Office
This book explores the different factors that can influence a new movie’s prospects at the box office. Looking at factors such as the production budget, distribution model, genre, stars and audience reactions of films, Gunter asks how such aspects may red
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Barrie Gunter
Predicting Movie Success at the Box Office
Barrie Gunter
Predicting Movie Success at the Box Office
Barrie Gunter School of Media, Communication and Sociology University of Leicester Leicester, UK
ISBN 978-3-319-71802-6 ISBN 978-3-319-71803-3 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71803-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017963064 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: Charlotte Steeples Photography / Getty Images Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents
1 Is Box Office Still Relevant? 1 2 Are the Most Expensive Movies the Most Successful? 21 3 Is Studio Size Important to Box Office Success? 35 4 What About Distribution, Exhibition and Timing Factors? 51 5 Does Marketing and Promotion Create Box Office Success? 71 6 Are Some Genres More Profitable than Others? 89 7 Do Sex, Horror and Violence Sell Movies? 109 8 What Is the Impact of Regulatory Classification? 127
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CONTENTS
9 How Important Is the Screenplay to Box Office Performance? 145 10 Why are Sequels and Remakes So Popular with Movie Studios? 161 11 How Significant Is Star Power? 175 12 Do Awards Make a Difference? 195 13 What Is the Role of Critics’ Reviews? 209 14 How Important Is It to Get Movie-Goers Onside? 227 15 Is There a Formula for Success? 243 I ndex 261
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Table 2.1 Table 8.1
Overview of box office performance predictors examined in this book Box office revenue prediction models Film classification system used in the United Kingdom
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CHAPTER 1
Is Box Office Stil
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