Prediction of future situation of land use/cover change and modeling sensitivity to pollution in Edku Lake, Egypt based
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Prediction of future situation of land use/cover change and modeling sensitivity to pollution in Edku Lake, Egypt based on geospatial analyses Hazem T. Abd El-Hamid . Muhammad A. El-Alfy . Abdelhamid A. Elnaggar
Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Assessing land use/cover (LULC) change in coastal lakes is an essential process for sustainable development. Edku Lake is one of the most important lakes in the northern part of Nile Delta in Egypt. It is directly subject to severe anthropogenic activities. The main objectives of this work were to predict LULC changes within Edku Lake area and to develop a pollution sensitivity model using remote sensing data and modern geographical information system (GIS) techniques. Three Landsat images were acquired in 2000, 2011 and 2018. These images were preprocessed, geo-referenced and prepared for further supervised classification using the maximum likelihood classifier. Five LULC classes were found in the area (water, vegetation, urban, bare and fish farm). CA– Markov model was applied to predict LULC changes using IDRISI software between each two consequent years. A predicted LULC map was obtained for 2025. This map can provide suggestions for future urban and vegetative planning in the studied area. This area was subject to severe changes from 2000 to 2018. Fish farms were significantly increased during this period. The predicted LULC map for 2025 indicates that large H. T. Abd El-Hamid M. A. El-Alfy (&) Marine Pollution Department, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Alexandria 21556, Egypt e-mail: [email protected] A. A. Elnaggar Soil Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt
vegetative areas will be converted into urban and fish farms. The pollution sensitivity model showed that the eastern parts of the lake are more sensitive to pollution compared with the rest of the lake. Accordingly, protection of biodiversity in Edku Lake can be achieved based on future scenarios and measuring sensitivity of environmental factors and surrounding activities. Keywords Land use/land cover change Markov Chain Edku Lake Prediction Sensitivity Pollution
Introduction Pollution into lakes Water pollution occurred as a result of growing population which is responsible for urban expansion, industrial activity, and agricultural development all over the world. These activities increase waste disposal into water bodies and aggravate pollution problems. These result in many terrible diseases like typhoid, cholera, jaundice etc. Vector borne diseases like malaria, dengue fever, filariasis, chikungunya etc., are also the result of water pollution (Sheela et al. 2013) Egypt’s coastal Lakes are located along the Mediterranean sea coast; four in the northern part of the Nile Delta (Manzala, Burullus, Mariout and Edku) and one in the northern part of the Sinai (Bardawil)
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(Khalil 2018). These lakes suffer from various type of pollutants either from domestic wastes, agricul
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