Prediction of long-term creep features of a supported expressway slope
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Prediction of long-term creep features of a supported expressway slope Jianhui Dong 1,2 & Long Li 3 & Qiu Mao 4 & Jianjun Zhao 4 & Qihong Wu 2 & Feihong Xie 2 Received: 2 September 2020 / Accepted: 1 November 2020 / Published online: 10 November 2020 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2020
Abstract This paper aims to disclose the effects of the long-term creep of an expressway slope on project safety. Firstly, the displacements at multiple points of the slope were monitored by multi-point displacement meters. The displacement data were decomposed through time series analysis into a trend term and a period term. A creep fitting model of the slope is proposed by mathematical modeling. Then, the linear function and periodic function were combined to fit the creep curves and predict the long-term creep of the slope. The results show that the combined fitting function has a high accuracy and applies well to the prediction of long-term creep of the slope; the target slope will continue to creep in future and should be reinforced after 40 years into operation. The research results shed new light on the slope safety of expressways. Keywords Fitting function . Time series . Slope creep . Displacement prediction
Introduction The creep of the slope is a slow and gradual process. In the long term, it is easy to bring great influence on the stability of slope engineering. Fukumoto et al. (1979) studied the longterm creep stability of landslides by using large specimen tests. Saito (1987) used creep curve to predict landslide deformation and failure. Haupt (1991) and Maranini and Brignoli (1999) mainly studied the creep process of rock and soil mass. Yang et al. (2004) established a creep model to study the creep of an open-pit coal mine slope through This article is part of the Topical Collection on Big Data and Intelligent Computing Techniques in Geosciences * Jianhui Dong [email protected] 1
College of Water Resources and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
2
School of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106, China
3
Henan Zhonghui Electronic Engineering Consulting Co., Llc., Zhengzhou 450000, China
4
State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, 610059 Chengdu, China
geotechnical test analysis. Through geotechnical tests and generalized Kelvin model, Xu et al. (2004) analyzed and predicted the long-term creep stability of the high slope rock mass of the Three Gorges lock. Tamada et al. (2005) evaluated the long-term stability of creep landslides by combining the creep curve of cohesive soil and landslide weakness. Chang et al. (2015) used numerical simulation to study the creep deformation process of the slope. Zhou and Cheng (2015) established a new strict limit equilibrium model to evaluate the creep stability of slope. Sonoda and Kurashige (2017) studied the creep details and mechanism of the forest slope in Japan through long-term monitoring and analysis. SchneiderMuntau and Cordes (2
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