Predictive modeling for U and Th concentrations in mineral and thermal waters, Serbia
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THEMATIC ISSUE
Predictive modeling for U and Th concentrations in mineral and thermal waters, Serbia Marina Ćuk Đurović1 · Igor Jemcov1 · Maja Todorović1 · Ana Mladenović1 · Petar Papić1 · Jana Štrbački1 Received: 30 June 2019 / Accepted: 12 September 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The objective of this paper was to determine background values (BV) and anomalous values (AV) of U and Th in groundwater and to establish hydrogeochemical conditions which lead to the elevated concentrations of these elements in groundwater. The methodology included planning and collecting of water samples, laboratory work, and assessment of BV and AV concentrations in accordance with the dataset distribution, based on consideration of hydrogeochemical conditions in the hydrogeological system. Groundwater sampling included 144 occurrences of mineral and thermal water from Serbian territory, belonging to different hydrogeological systems. Field parameters were measured for temperature (T), pH, electrical conductivity (EC), oxidation–reduction potential (ORP), dissolved oxygen (DO), and carbon dioxide ( CO2). Standard laboratory measurements were applied for the determination of major chemical components (Ca, Mg, Na, K, Cl, H CO3, and SO4) and U and Th concentrations were measured by ICP-MS. The first step for obtaining U and Th threshold values was based on non-parametric statistical analysis on the data sets. Further analysis of threshold values enabled establishing hydrogeochemical conditions influencing elevated concentrations of U and Th and setting up the logistic regression (LR) model. Differences in the hydrochemical properties of U and Th can be observed based on predictor variables from LR models. Physico-chemical parameters Eh and pH, groundwater type, and geochemical environment (cretaceous igneous rocks) were significant predictors for elevated uranium concentrations, while significant predictors in the thorium LR model were the pH value, the concentration of SO4 in the solution, and the water-bearing rocks (tertiary igneous rocks). Keywords Radioactive elements · Groundwater · Hydrogeological system · Non-parametric statistical analysis · Logistic regression model
Introduction
This article is a part of the Topical Collectionin Environmental Earth Sciences on “Mineral and Thermal Waters"guest edited by Drs. Adam Porowski, Nina Rman and Istvan Forizs,with James LaMoreaux as the Editor-in-Chief. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-09204-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Marina Ćuk Đurović [email protected] * Ana Mladenović [email protected] 1
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mining and Geology, Belgrade, Serbia
Predictive models have been increasingly used to generate predictions across various disciplines in the environmental sciences (Li 2017). The importance of applying predictive models in environmental studies is often related
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