Preparing the Ground? Scenarios and political change in South Africa
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Preparing the Ground? Scenarios and political change in South Africa GRAHAM GALER 1
ABSTRACT Graham Galer reviews ‘scenarios’ of different futures for the governance and socio-economic development of South Africa, as seen pre-1994. As a former scenario planner in industry, Galer describes how scenario thinking, developed primarily for use in strategic management, might have helped to build consensus in circumstances of social and political conflict in South Africa. He considers whether this work made a useful contribution to the enormous changes that took place, and asks in what circumstances a similar methodology could profitably be employed in other situations of conflict. KEYWORDS low road/high road scenarios; Mont Fleur scenarios; Old Mutual/Nedcor scenarios
Introduction Political change in South Africa, following the years of apartheid, was the result of many social, political and economic forces, involving many actors, working through many processes. The whole momentous story has inspired an enormous literature, from the autobiographical writings of iconic figures such as Nelson Mandela and Desmond Tutu, to journalism such as that of Allister Sparks, and of course a plethora of academic books and papers (Sparks, 1994; Mandela,1995;Tutu, 2000).
Scenario planning ‘Scenario planning’, or more generally ‘scenario thinking’, is a practice which has become widely employed in industry and government since the 1970s. In contrast to traditional ‘forecasting’, scenario practitioners envisage two, three or more possible futures for the entity under consideration, which may be as narrow as the market for a product, or as broad as the future of the world economy. By accepting uncertainty and thinking through the consequences of these ‘alternative futures’, it is argued, decision-makers will be better prepared to deal with the future as it actually eventuates. This approach to thinking about the future is now well accepted and there is a substantial bibliography of books and papers covering the many ways in which it has been developed and used Development (2004) 47(4), 26–34. doi:10.1057/palgrave.development.1100092
Galer: Preparing the Ground? (e.g. Schwartz, 1991; Van der Heijden, 1996, 2002; Ringland, 1998; Sunter and Ilbury, 2001; Global Business Environment, Shell International, 2003).
Scenario planning in South Africa During the 1980s, a number of groups and individuals in South Africa saw the potential of scenario thinking as a means of conceiving and disseminating futures for the country which might be different from the apocalyptic future foreseen at that period by many both in South Africa and abroad. Several projects were consequently undertaken, beginning with that led by Clem Sunter, an executive with Anglo American Corporation. Out of this research came the concept of the ‘High Road’ or ‘Low Road’ options for South Africa. In 1986, the research of Sunter’s team was made widely available, evoking an enormous response. Later projects, in the early 1990s, studied the nature of the transitio
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