Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir, China Wengang ZHANGa,b,c, Libin TANGa, Hongrui LIa, Lin WANGa* , Longfei CHENGd, Tingqiang ZHOUd, Xiang CHENd a
School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China c National Joint Engineering Research Center of Geohazards Prevention in the Reservoir Areas, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China d School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Chongqing 404100, China b
*
Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
© Higher Education Press 2020
ABSTRACT Landslide is a common geological hazard in reservoir areas and may cause great damage to local residents’ life and property. It is widely accepted that rainfall and periodic variation of water level are the two main factors triggering reservoir landslides. In this study, the Bazimen landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was back-analyzed as a case study. Based on the statistical features of the last 3-year monitored data and field instrumentations, the landslide susceptibility in an annual cycle and four representative periods was investigated via the deterministic and probabilistic analysis, respectively. The results indicate that the fluctuation of the reservoir water level plays a pivotal role in inducing slope failures, for the minimum stability coefficient occurs at the rapid decline period of water level. The probabilistic analysis results reveal that the initial sliding surface is the most important area influencing the occurrence of landslide, compared with other parts in the landslide. The seepage calculations from probabilistic analysis imply that rainfall is a relatively inferior factor affecting slope stability. This study aims to provide preliminary guidance on risk management and early warning in the TGR area. KEYWORDS
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reliability analysis, Bazimen landslide, rainfall, reservoir water level, slope stability
Introduction
The stability of reservoir high slopes is one of the main concerns in geotechnical engineering design and practice. China has the largest volume of hydroelectric power station in the world, known as the Three Gorges Dam. It has been reported that there has been a great number of landslides since its first impoundment in June 2003 [1,2]. Slope failures may cause catastrophic damage to local people’s life and property. Slope safety evaluation is a significant prerequisite for landslide disaster prevention and control in geological practice. It is urgent and essential to reveal the failure mechanism underlying landslides and to further provide preliminary guidance on geological Article history: Received Oct 1, 2019; Accepted Nov 28, 2019
disaster migration of landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). It has been widely accepted that rainfall and fluctuation of water level are the two
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