Progress in Severe Convective Weather Forecasting in China since the 1950s
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Advances in Meteorological Research and Operation Since the Founding of The People’s Republic of China
AUGUST 2020
Progress in Severe Convective Weather Forecasting in China since the 1950s Xiaoling ZHANG1*, Jianhua SUN2,3, Yongguang ZHENG1, Yuanchun ZHANG2, Ruoyun MA2,3, Xinlin YANG2, Kanghui ZHOU1, and Xuqing HAN1 1 National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 2 Key Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (Received September 10, 2019; in final form June 27, 2020)
ABSTRACT Located in the Asian monsoon region, China frequently experiences severe convective weather (SCW), such as short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR), thunderstorm high winds, hails, and occasional tornadoes. Progress in SCW forecasting in China is closely related to the construction and development of meteorological observation networks, especially weather radar and meteorological satellite networks. In the late 1950s, some county-level meteorological bureaus began to conduct empirical hail forecasting based on observations of clouds and surface meteorological variables. It took over half a century to develop a modern comprehensive operational monitoring and warning system for SCW forecast nationwide since the setup of the first weather radar in 1959. The operational SCW forecasting, including real-time monitoring, warnings valid for tens of minutes, watches valid for several hours, and outlooks covering lead times of up to three days, was established in 2009. Operational monitoring and forecasting of thunderstorms, SDHR, thunderstorm high winds, and hails have been carried out. The performance of operational SCW forecasting will be continually improved in the future with the development of convection-resolving numerical models (CRNMs), the upgrade of weather radar networks, the launch of new-generation meteorological satellites, better understanding of meso-γ and microscale SCW systems, and further application of artificial intelligence technology and CRNM predictions. Key words: severe convective weather (SCW), forecasting, radar, meteorological satellite, artificial intelligence, convection-resolving numerical model (CRNM) Citation: Zhang, X. L., J. H. Sun, Y. G. Zheng, et al., 2020: Progress in severe convective weather forecasting in China since the 1950s. J. Meteor. Res., 34(4), 699–719, doi: 10.1007/s13351-020-9146-2.
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Introduction
Located in the East Asian monsoon region, China is prone to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that not only bring heavy rainfall (Tao, 1980), but also produce severe convective weather (SCW), such as thunderstorm high winds, hails (Zhang et al., 2008; Yang et al., 2017), and tornadoes (Fan and Yu, 2015; Chen et al., 2018). In the operational meteorological forecasting in China, SCW refers to short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR) with hourly precipitation of no less than 20 mm, thunderstorm high winds exceeding Be
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