Research and Operational Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in China
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Advances in Meteorological Research and Operation Since the Founding of The People’s Republic of China
AUGUST 2020
Research and Operational Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in China Xueshun SHEN1,2,3, Jianjie WANG1,2*, Zechun LI1, Dehui CHEN1,2, and Jiandong GONG1,2 1 National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 2 Numerical Weather Prediction Center of the China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 3 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 (Received December 2, 2019; in final form June 24, 2020)
ABSTRACT Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community. Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since 1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system—GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3–10 km for regional and 25–50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China. Key words: numerical weather prediction (NWP), Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES), semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian grid-point model, physical process, four-dimensional variational assimilation, satellite data assimilation Citation: Shen, X. S., J. J. Wang, Z. C. Li, et al., 2020: Research and operational development of numerical weather prediction in China. J. Meteor. Res., 34(4), 675–698, doi: 10.1007/s13351-020-9847-6.
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Introduction
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History of NWP research and application in China
The numerical weather prediction (NWP) objectively and quantitatively calculates future weather based on mathematical and physical laws. Following almost 70 years of development since its experimental success in the 1950s, NWP has become a sophisticated, strict, interdisciplinary science and technology. By virtue of NWP, weather forecast turns into an objective, quantitative science from the statistics and weather-map based, semiempirical technology (Zeng, 2013; Benjamin et al., 2019). The history of NWP, fr
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