A Dynamic-Bayesian-Networks-Based Resilience Assessment Approach of Structure Systems: Subsea Oil and Gas Pipelines as A
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ayesian-Networks-Based Resilience Assessment Approach of Structure Systems: Subsea Oil and Gas Pipelines as A Case Study CAI Bao-pinga, b, *, ZHANG Yan-pinga, b, YUAN Xiao-binga, b, GAO Chun-tana, b, LIU Yong-honga, b, CHEN Guo-minga, b, LIU Zeng-kaia, b, JI Ren-jiea, b a National Engineering Laboratory of Offshore Geophysical and Exploration Equipment, China University of
Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China b College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China
Received March 16, 2020; revised April 20, 2020; accepted June 12, 2020 ©2020 Chinese Ocean Engineering Society and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature Abstract Under unanticipated natural disasters, any failure of structure components may cause the crash of an entire structure system. Resilience is an important metric for the structure system. Although many resilience metrics and assessment approaches are proposed for engineering system, they are not suitable for complex structure systems, since the failure mechanisms of them are different under the influences of natural disasters. This paper proposes a novel resilience assessment metric for structure system from a macroscopic perspective, named structure resilience, and develops a corresponding assessment approach based on remaining useful life of key components. Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) and Markov are applied to establish the resilience assessment model. In the degradation process, natural degradation and accelerated degradation are modelled by using Bayesian networks, and then coupled by using DBNs. In the recovery process, the model is established by combining Markov and DBNs. Subsea oil and gas pipelines are adopted to demonstrate the application of the proposed structure metric and assessment approach. Key words: structure resilience, structure system, remaining useful life, dynamic Bayesian networks Citation: Cai, B. P., Zhang, Y. P., Yuan, X. B., Gao, C. T., Liu, Y. H., Chen, G. M., Liu, Z. K., Ji, R. J., 2020. A dynamic-bayesian-networksbased resilience assessment approach of Structure systems: subsea oil and gas pipelines as a case study. China Ocean Eng., 34(5): 597–607, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13344-020-0054-0
1 Introduction Resilience of engineering systems in the face of the variety of disruptive events has been attracted an enormous amount of research with the increasing of complexity and size of the systems. Structure system, made up of various mechanical components, is almost the most important part in an engineering system. Under the unanticipated natural disasters, any failure of the structure components may cause the crash of the entire structure system. Building resilience into structure system is the key to protecting against the deleterious influences of system disruption because of natural disasters. It is necessary to apply a comprehensive framework to assess the resilience of structure systems t
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