A new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation after intravenous thrombol
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
A new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke patients Yaya Wu1†, Hui Chen2†, Xueyun Liu1,3, Xiuying Cai1, Yan Kong1, Hui Wang1, Yun Zhou1, Juehua Zhu1, Lulu Zhang1, Qi Fang1* and Tan Li1*
Abstract Background: A reliable scoring tool to detect the risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke is warranted. The present study was designed to develop and validate a new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in patients treated with intravenous (IV) recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA). Methods: We enrolled patients who suffered from acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with IV rt-PA treatment in our emergency green channel between August 2016 and July 2018. The main outcome was defined as any type of intracerebral hemorrhage according to the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II (ECASS II). All patients were randomly divided into two cohorts: the primary cohort and the validation cohort. On the basis of multivariate logistic model, the predictive nomogram was generated. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Results: A total of 194 patients with complete data were enrolled, of whom 131 comprised the primary cohort and 63 comprised the validation cohort, with HT rate 12.2, 9.5% respectively. The score of chronic disease scale (CDS), the global burden of cerebral small vascular disease (CSVD), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score ≥ 13, and onset-to-treatment time (OTT) ≥ 180 were detected important determinants of ICH and included to construct the nomogram. The nomogram derived from the primary cohort for HT had C- Statistics of 0.9562 and the calibration plot revealed generally fit in predicting the risk of HT. Furthermore, we made a comparison between our new nomogram and several other risk-assessed scales for HT with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and the results showed the nomogram model gave an area under curve of 0.9562 (95%CI, 0.9221–0.9904, P < 0.01) greater than HAT (Hemorrhage After Thrombolysis), SEDAN (blood Sugar, Early infarct and hyper Dense cerebral artery sign on noncontrast computed tomography, Age, and NIHSS) and SPAN-100 (Stroke Prognostication using Age and NIHSS) scores. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected] † Yaya Wu and Hui Chen contributed equally to this work. 1 Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original
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