A route-planning method for long-distance commuter express bus service based on OD estimation from mobile phone location

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A route‑planning method for long‑distance commuter express bus service based on OD estimation from mobile phone location data: the case of the Changping Corridor in Beijing Zhenbao Wang1   · Sicheng Wang2 · Haitao Lian1 Accepted: 1 September 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020

Abstract With the background of hyperurbanization and a jobs–housing imbalance in Beijing and other megacities in China, this study aims at developing a systematic toolkit of demand estimation and route planning for long-distance commuter bus lines. Taking the express bus services (EBS) in the Changping Corridor in Beijing as an example, this paper presents the use of a route-planning algorithm. Mobile phone location (MPL) data serves as a valid instrument for the origin–destination (OD) estimation, which provides a new perspective to identify the locations of homes and jobs. The OD distribution matrices are specified via geocoded MPL data. To minimize the aggregated travel time and attract potential passengers, this study subsamples longdistance commuting trips among the OD matrices by determining the operation distance threshold. The threshold can be solved by comparing the aggregated travel time of EBS to the travel time of local buses and private cars. Using the distance threshold and other operational parameters, we process an iterative computation to determine the length of routes, number of lines, and stop spacing and location. Compared to local buses and private cars, the planned EBS lines could reduce aggregated travel time by at least 20%. The results demonstrate that the method presented in this study is applicable and flexible. This paper may lead to new research directions for route planning of long-distance commuter buses. The limitations of this study and the future research agenda are also discussed. Keywords  Route planning · Mobile phone location data · Long-distance commute · OD distribution · Express bus service

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 97th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, January 2018. Zhenbao Wang and Sicheng Wang contributed equally to this manuscript and are acknowledged as co-first authors. Extended author information available on the last page of the article

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Fig. 1  Four commuting corridors in Beijing: a The morning peak ridership of Beijing subways; b four major commuting corridors in Beijing

1 Introduction Commuter travel demands and patterns are swiftly changing in hyperurbanizing metropolitan areas (Ceder and Wilson 1986; Ingram 1998). With 4 decades of economic development and urban population growth, Beijing, like other megacities in China, has experienced enormous sprawl and urban development (Gaubatz 1995; Zhao et al. 2009). The Beijing metropolitan area has a unique spatial structure, with six concentric ring roads. The inner rings (i.e., the 2nd Ring and 3rd Ring) enclose the old parts of the city, whereas the outer rings (i.e., the 5th Ring and 6th Ring) connect newly developed area