Application of probabilistic method in maximum tsunami height prediction considering stochastic seabed topography
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Application of probabilistic method in maximum tsunami height prediction considering stochastic seabed topography Zhenhao Zhang1 · Changchun Luo1 · Zhenpeng Zhao1 Received: 8 December 2019 / Accepted: 29 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Uncertainty is a significant challenge in tsunami hazard analysis. Tsunami heights are affected by complex factors and change constantly during propagation. The heights of tsunami have random characteristics. This study proposes that the water depths (related to seabed topography) are the most important factors that affect tsunami height. But across the globe, a considerable area of seabed topography has not been measured. So it is necessary to use the method of uncertainty to consider the water depth. The Wiener process is utilized to quantify the random changes of the water depth, which can better describe the situation that water depths change in a non-monotonic way. Considering the uncertainty of water depth, a Weiner process-based probabilistic model was established for predicting the maximum tsunami height, which is different from the maximum tsunami height deterministic or stochastic model previously studied with higher prediction efficiency and good prediction accuracy. The probability distribution of maximum tsunami heights was calculated using the stochastic model. The mean value of the maximum tsunami heights was very similar to the average value of 165 actual observations of maximum tsunami heights collected from 1997 to 2017. Keywords Maximum tsunami height · Probabilistic model · Wiener process · Stochastic water depth · Risk prediction
1 Introduction Traditionally, tsunami hazard and risk analyses were undertaken using deterministic methods. Due to a tsunami’s stochastic nature, efforts have recently been made toward the development of probabilistic estimates of tsunami hazards, often called “probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment” (PTHA) (Geist and Parsons 2006; Thio et al. 2007; Gonzalez et al. 2013; Geist and Lynett 2014). This assessment is based on a long-implemented method of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) (National Research Council 1988; Cornell 1968). PTHA methods take into consideration of all possible tsunami parameters * Zhenhao Zhang [email protected] 1
School of Civil Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
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Natural Hazards
that might affect the formation of a tsunami. However, uncertainties associated with wave height modeling still remain a key challenge in tsunami hazard and risk analysis (Zhang et al. 2018; Zhang and Cao 2015; Zhang and Lam 2014, 2015). Currently, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments mainly use maximum tsunami heights that occur near shore or inundation depths on land (Gonzalez et al. 2013; Adams et al. 2014). However, inundation depth at least partly depends on maximum tsunami height. Therefore, the maximum tsunami height is an essential parameter in tsunami hazard analysis. A good understanding of the uncert
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