Arctic Futures: The Power of Ideas
That the Arctic is experiencing transformative change is no longer news. But what are the implications of this development with regard to matters of governance and policy? This article makes the case that the answer to this question depends on the paradig
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Arctic Futures: The Power of Ideas Oran R. Young
Abstract That the Arctic is experiencing transformative change is no longer news. But what are the implications of this development with regard to matters of governance and policy? This article makes the case that the answer to this question depends on the paradigm or discourse we employ as a conceptual framework for interpreting the meaning and significance of changes in the circumpolar Arctic. It contrasts interpretations produced by observers whose thinking is rooted in the neo-realist/geopolitical paradigm with those offered by others whose thinking rests on a socio-ecological systems paradigm. Although journalists and popular writers tend to gravitate toward the neo-realist/geopolitical paradigm, those who possess a more intimate knowledge of recent developments in the Arctic are inclined to base their thinking on the socio-ecological systems paradigm. Because the assumptions and precepts of paradigms or discourses are not falsifiable, it is fruitless to try to demonstrate that one of the two paradigms is somehow superior to the other. Nevertheless, for those dedicated to preserving the Arctic as a zone of peace, the socio-ecological systems paradigm has strong attractions.
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Introduction
That the Arctic is undergoing a dramatic transformation, driven by the interacting forces of climate change and globalization, is no longer news. The media have disseminated a steady stream of iconic images of the changing Arctic depicting such things as the recession and thinning of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, the opening of the
O.R. Young (*) Institutional and International Governance, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA e-mail: [email protected] 123 P.A. Berkman and A.N. Vylegzhanin (eds.), Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean, NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-4713-5_14, © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
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Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage during the summer months, the melting of portions of the Greenland ice cap, and the plight of polar bears stranded on disintegrating ice floes. Projections of continuing change, featuring extraordinary developments like a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean, are now widespread. But what does all this mean in human terms, and how should we organize our thinking about the implications of this transformation for policy and governance? Must we brace ourselves for the onset of a new cold war, an Arctic “great game,” or a sequence of increasingly severe resource wars, as many popular writers on Arctic issues are suggesting? Or are there prospects for more cooperative relationships developing in the circumpolar Arctic and making the region an exemplar for those striving to respond constructively to rapid biophysical and socioeconomic changes occurring in other regions? Might the Arctic even emerge as a showcase for new forms of transnational cooperation in an e
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