Concentrated and Close to Home: The Spatial Clustering and Distance Decay of Lone Terrorist Vehicular Attacks
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Concentrated and Close to Home: The Spatial Clustering and Distance Decay of Lone Terrorist Vehicular Attacks Badi Hasisi1 · Simon Perry1 · Yonatan Ilan2 · Michael Wolfowicz1
© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2019
Abstract Objectives This study examines the spatial characteristics of vehicular terror attacks in Israel from a “micro place” perspective at the street segment level. Utilizing data obtained from the Israel Security Agency, Israel National police, and open sources, the study analyzes the 71 vehicular attacks carried out in Israel between 2000 and 2017. In addition to examining the hot-spots at which attacks occurred, we also identify “hot routes”, estimated journey to attack routes. Methods We move beyond traditional approaches by calculating and comparing generalized Gini coefficients and their Lorenz curves for both the hot spots and hot routes. Results Tight spatial clustering in Jerusalem and the West Bank is found to be characteristic of this type of attack, which is limited by a range geographic constraints. Hot routes are identified as being highly concentrated at the street-segment level, although they are relatively less concentrated than hot-spots. Additionally, the presence of a strong distance decay function is confirmed. Conclusions The findings indicate that the laws of crime concentration are applicable to the case of lone terrorist vehicular attacks. The results demonstrate the utility of the methodological approach to examining specific types of terror attacks. Such approaches may be useful for informing environmental based prevention policies and strategies. Keywords Terrorism · Hot-spots · Concentration
Introduction While many studies have tried to construct a profile of lone terrorists that could assist in early detection, many researchers have reconciled themselves to the notion that a coherent and consistent profile of attackers is unlikely to emerge (Perry et al. 2017a, b, c; Gill et al. 2017). However, the relatively recent development and growth of a body of literature from criminology has been able to uncover new insights into characteristics of attacks, including * Badi Hasisi [email protected] 1
Faculty of Law, Institute of Criminology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
2
Geographical Analysis Unit, Strategy and Research Division, Planning & Organization Department, Israel National Police, East Jerusalem, Israel
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Journal of Quantitative Criminology
a growing movement towards computational and geographic approaches (Dean 2007; Bahgat and Medina 2013). Such approaches have been especially useful for examining the spatial characteristics and distributions of terrorism and for identifying commonalities and differences between different types of terrorism in different contexts.1 Recent studies have demonstrated that indeed, terrorism shares many spatial characteristics with ordinary crime (Bennell and Corey 2008; Cothren et al. 2008; Rossmo and Harries 2011; LaFree et al. 2012; Gill et a
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