Crisis, Stabilization and Growth Economic Adjustment in Transition E
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CRISIS, STABILIZATION AND GROWTH: ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES
by PATRICK CONWAY
Department of Economics University of North Carolina
SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, LLC
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Conway, Patrick J. Crisis, stabilization and growth : economic adjustment in transition economies / by Patrick Conway. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4613-5621-9 ISBN 978-1-4615-1573-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4615-1573-9 1. Former Soviet republics--Economic policy. 2.Former Soviet republics-Economic conditions. 3. Former Soviet republics--Economic conditions--Case studies. 4. Saving and investment--Former Soviet republics. 1. Title HC336.27 .C665 2001 338.947--dc21
00-048795
Copyright © 2001 Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publisher in 2001 Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover Ist edition 2001 AlI rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher,
Springer Science+Business Media, LLC . Printed on acid-free paper
For Carol, Chris and Paul.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Figures List of Tables List of Symbols List of Country Acronyms Foreword and Acknowledgements
IX
xiii xv XIX XXI
I.
The Transition Economies
II.
Saving: by Plan and in the Market
m.
Considering the Competing Explanations of the Transition in Inflation and Economic Growth 73
IV.
The Inflationary Explosion Following Price Liberalization
125
V.
The Crisis Years
149
VI.
Directed Credits and Financial Repression in Belarus
193
VII.
Stabilization in Transition Economies
229
vm.
Ukraine in the Stabilization Phase
243
IX.
Georgia: from Crisis to Stabilization .. and Then ?
267
X.
Fallout of the Russian Financial Crisis for the Transition Economies
303
Conclusions - and Policy Advice
327
XI.
1 19
Bibliography
333
Indices
343
LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 . First-Generation Transitions of the Former Soviet Republics. 1.2: Second-Generation Transitions in the former Soviet Republics 1.3. Output Reduction in the Transition
8 9 II
11.1. Saving in the Flow of Funds 11.2. Intermediation in the Flow of Funds 11.3. Sources of Saving for Financing Investment, 1990 11.4. The Saving Choice in an Intertemporal Model 11.5. The Flow of Funds in the Soviet Union 11.6. Currency and Deposit Holdings: US and USSR, 1985 11.7. The Flow of Currency through Gosbank 11.8. The Pattern of Trade of the Former Soviet Republics 11.9. Equilibrium values of real interest rate 11.10. The Impact of Productivity Decline on Saving and the Real Interest Rate 11.11 . Productivity Decline in the Absence of International Borrowing 11.12. Correlations of Direct and Indirect Measures of National Saving 11.13. Average Private Saving Ratios 11.14. The Transition in Saving during the Crisis Period 11.15. Saving in Transition During the Stabilization Period
23
