Development of a Prototype of an Expert System for Decision Making Support in Optimizing Measures Aimed to Protect Water
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ORATION OF THE VOLGA
Development of a Prototype of an Expert System for Decision Making Support in Optimizing Measures Aimed to Protect Water Objects from Diffuse Pollution: Case Study of the Volga Basin M. A. Kozlovaa, *, N. V. Kirpichnikovaa, T. B. Faschevskayaa, V. O. Polyanina, and O. O. Borodina aWater
Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333 Russia *e-mail: [email protected]
Received February 26, 2020; revised March 21, 2020; accepted March 22, 2020
Abstract—A prototype of an expert system for decision-making support in optimizing measures aimed to protect pilot water objects from diffuse pollution in the Volga basin was developed based on special expedition studies carried out in 2018–2019, generalized results of earlier long-term studies, improved methodological approaches, and specially developed GIS. The prototype consists of fine interrelated blocks, which can be used to evaluate the anthropogenic load from different types of pollution sources (point and diffuse) and the parameters that characterize this pollution, and describe the methods and results of diffuse runoff calculation as well as possible water protection measures, and their efficiency. The prototype of the expert system allows the users (decision makers) to evaluate the extent of diffuse pollution and to choose the priority measures to reduce its effect on pilot water objects. Keywords: diffuse pollution sources, prototype of expert system, water protection measures, efficiency of measures DOI: 10.1134/S0097807820050115
INTRODUCTION The Volga runs in the most developed region of Russia. Its basin contains, fully or partly, 38 constituent entities of RF; its population is more than 40% of that of the country, and it accounts for more than 40% of the industry and ~45% of agriculture in Russia. The cause of anthropogenic load onto the drainage basin is numerous pollution sources, which are commonly divided into two classes: controlled (lumped) and noncontrolled. The total contribution of the latter to the pollution of water objects in the Volga basin can be considerable [2, 4, 5] and comparable with the contribution of point sources. At the same time, the water protection strategy of Russia has been always based on reconstruction, the construction of treatment facilities, and the improvement of methods for treatment of industrial and domestic wastes, i.e., controlled sources. Unfortunately, the disregard of an important class of pollution sources on the drainage basin, not subject to state control made it impossible to improve water quality in streams and the ecosystems of water bodies in the recent decades. Uncontrolled pollution sources mostly determine the diffuse character of pollutant inputs into hydrographic network. Leading research organizations in Russia under overall scientific guidance of Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, carried out pri-
mary studies at pilot water objects in the Volga basin. The pilot objects were chosen so as to give a most detail characteristic of the current factors
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