Ebola in the Hog Sector: Modeling Pandemic Emergence in Commodity Livestock
Commodity agriculture represents an expanding sink for a growing array of zoonotic pathogens. The emergence of novel strains of Ebola by way of economically driven shifts in husbandry and horticulture appears one such transition. Following up experimental
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Ebola in the Hog Sector: Modeling Pandemic Emergence in Commodity Livestock Rodrick Wallace, Luke Bergmann, Lenny Hogerwerf, Richard Kock, and Robert G. Wallace
2.1 Introduction Human impact is increasingly transforming planet Earth into planet Farm. Forty percent of the planet’s surface is dedicated to agriculture, with many millions more hectares to be brought into production by 2050 (Foley et al. 2005, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012, FAO 2013a). Livestock, representing 72 % of global animal biomass, are simultaneously highly concentrated and widely dispersed across the planet’s surface (Smil 2002; Van Boeckel 2013; Robinson et al. 2014) (Fig. 2.1). The livestock sector uses a third of available freshwater and a third of cropland for feed (Steinfeld et al. 2006; Herrero et al. 2013). Feed production, enteric fermentation, manure, animal processing, and transportation in turn produce greenhouse gases at 7.1 gigatonnes CO2-eq per year (Gerber et al. 2013). Agricultural impact extends to emergent disease. If by its global expansion alone, commodity agriculture increasingly acts as a nexus through which pathogens of diverse origins migrate from even the most isolated reservoirs in the wild to the most globalized of population centers (Graham et al. 2008; R.G. Wallace 2009;
R. Wallace Division of Epidemiology, The New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, NY, USA L. Bergmann Department of Geography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA L. Hogerwerf Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands R. Kock Pathology & Pathogen Biology, The Royal Veterinary College, London, UK R.G. Wallace () Institute for Global Studies, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA e-mail: [email protected] © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 R.G. Wallace, R. Wallace (eds.), Neoliberal Ebola, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-40940-5_2
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Fig. 2.1 Global livestock. (a) Total livestock (cattle, chickens, ducks, pigs, sheep, and goats) per km2 (2006) (Eckert IV projection). Sixty-four percent of all cattle, chickens, ducks, pigs, sheep, and goats are found on 2 % of Earth’s land surface. At the same time, 10 % of these stocks are found across 69 % of land surface. Data from the Gridded Livestock of the World v2.0 (Robinson et al. 2014). (b) Livestock per human per km2 . Livestock data from Gridded Livestock of the World v2.0 (Robinson et al. 2014). Human data from Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) v1.0 (2000) (Balk et al. 2006). All areas with less than 0.1 persons/km2 masked out. (c) Global biomass wildlife, livestock, and people. UNFAO data.
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Jones et al. 2013; Liverani et al. 2013; Engering et al. 2013; FAO et al. 2013b). The lengthier the associated supply chains and the greater the extent of adjunct deforestation, the more diverse (and
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