Evaluation of Prediction Models for Type 2 Diabetes Relapse After Post-bariatric Surgery Remission: a Post hoc Analysis
- PDF / 819,248 Bytes
- 6 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 19 Downloads / 181 Views
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
Evaluation of Prediction Models for Type 2 Diabetes Relapse After Post-bariatric Surgery Remission: a Post hoc Analysis of 15-Year Follow-up Data from the Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) Study Kajsa Sjöholm 1 & Per-Arne Svensson 1,2 & Magdalena Taube 1 & Peter Jacobson 1 & Johanna C. Andersson-Assarsson 1 & Lena M. S. Carlsson 1 & Markku Peltonen 3,4 Received: 31 March 2020 / Revised: 01 June 2020 / Accepted: 04 June 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Purpose Many patients achieve type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission after bariatric surgery, but relapse after post-surgery remission is common. Scoring models accurately predict remission up to 5 years after surgery but have not been tested for prediction of longterm T2D relapse. The aim of this work was to test the ability of prediction models and single predictors to identify patients at risk of long-term relapse (10–15 years) after post-surgery T2D remission. Methods We identified 222 individuals with T2D from the surgically treated group in the prospective Swedish Obese Subjects study, who were in remission at the 2-year follow-up and had data available for prediction of long-term T2D relapse. T2D remission/relapse was assessed after 10 and 15 years. Model performance (discrimination) was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. Results Preoperative prediction of relapse using scores DiaRem, Ad-DiaRem, and DiaBetter and T2D duration alone was poor, as indicated by AUROC curves between 0.61–0.64 at 10 years and 0.62–0.66 at 15 years. Likewise, the 5y-Ad-DiaRem score, which includes early postoperative measures, resulted in AUROC curves of 0.65 and 0.70 for relapse at 10 and 15 years, respectively. Two-year weight change alone had higher discriminatory capacity than the 5y-Ad-DiaRem model at 10 years (AUROC = 0.70; p = 0.036) and similar capacity at 15 years (AUROC = 0.78; p = 0.188). Conclusions Predictive performance of all tested models is low for T2D relapse. By contrast, a single measure of 2-year weight change after surgery was associated with relapse, supporting a key role for initial weight reduction in long-term T2D control. Keywords Bariatric surgery . Type 2 diabetes relapse . Prediction model . Type 2 diabetes mellitus . Weight reduction
Introduction Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11695-020-04763-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Kajsa Sjöholm [email protected] 1
Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
2
Institute of Health and Care Science, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
3
Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institutet (Solna), Stockholm, Sweden
4
Public Health Promotion Unit, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a chronic disease, associated with severe macrovascular and microvascular complications [1]. Bariatric
Data Loading...
