External validation of Cormio nomogram for predicting all prostate cancers and clinically significant prostate cancers
- PDF / 1,071,528 Bytes
- 7 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 113 Downloads / 198 Views
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
External validation of Cormio nomogram for predicting all prostate cancers and clinically significant prostate cancers Luca Cindolo1 · Riccardo Bertolo2 · Andrea Minervini3 · Francesco Sessa3 · Gianluca Muto3 · Pierluigi Bove2 · Matteo Vittori2 · Giorgio Bozzini4 · Pietro Castellan5 · Filippo Mugavero6 · Mario Falsaperla6 · Luigi Schips5 · Antonio Celia7 · Maida Bada7 · Angelo Porreca8 · Antonio Pastore9 · Yazan Al Salhi9 · Marco Giampaoli8 · Giovanni Novella10 · Riccardo Rizzetto10 · Nicoló Trabacchin10 · Guglielmo Mantica11 · Giovannalberto Pini11 · Riccardo Lombardo12 · Andrea Tubaro12 · Alessandro Antonelli10 · Cosimo De Nunzio12 Received: 22 September 2019 / Accepted: 12 December 2019 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Purpose Recently, the Cormio et al. nomogram has been developed to predict prostate cancer (PCa) and clinically significant PCa using benign prostatic obstruction parameters. The aim of the present study was to externally validate the nomogram in a multicentric cohort. Methods Between 2013 and 2019, patients scheduled for ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy were prospectively enrolled at 11 Italian institutions. Demographic, clinical and histological data were collected and analysed. Discrimination and calibration of Cormio nomogram were assessed with the receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration plots. The clinical net benefit of the nomogram was assessed with decision curve analysis. Clinically significant PCa was defined as ISUP grade group > 1. Results After accounting for inclusion criteria, 1377 patients were analysed. 816/1377 (59%) had cancer at final pathology (574/816, 70%, clinically significant PCa). Multivariable analysis showed age, prostate volume, DRE and post-voided residual volume as independent predictors of any PCa. Discrimination of the nomogram for cancer was 0.70 on ROC analysis. Calibration of the nomogram was excellent (p = 0.94) and the nomogram presented a net benefit in the 40–80% range of probabilities. Multivariable analysis for predictors of clinically significant PCa found age, PSA, prostate volume and DRE as independent variables. Discrimination of the nomogram was 0.73. Calibration was poor (p = 0.001) and the nomogram presented a net benefit in the 25–75% range of probabilities. Conclusion We confirmed that the Cormio nomogram can be used to predict the risk of PCa in patients at increased risk. Implementation of the nomogram in clinical practice will better define its role in the patient’s counselling before prostate biopsy. Keywords Prostatic neoplasms · Nomograms · Validation · Prostate biopsy · Prostatic hyperplasia
Introduction Prostate biopsy (PBx) is the gold standard for diagnosing prostate cancer (PCa) [1]. Nevertheless, the diagnostic yield of this procedure remains low. As such, the rate of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00345-019-03058-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized
Data Loading...
