Grey Models for Decision-Making
Deciding on what actions to take based on actual circumstances and pre-determined goals is known as decision-making. The essential meaning of decision-making is to make a decision or to choose a course of actions. Decision-making not only plays an importa
- PDF / 260,048 Bytes
- 29 Pages / 439.37 x 666.142 pts Page_size
- 94 Downloads / 299 Views
Grey Models for Decision-Making
10.1
Introduction
Deciding on what actions to take based on actual circumstances and pre-determined goals is known as decision-making. The essential meaning of decision-making is to make a decision or to choose a course of actions. Decision-making not only plays an important part in various kinds of management activities, but also appears throughout every person’s daily life. The concept of decision-making can be divided into two categories: general and specific. In the general category, each decision-making stands for an entire process of activities, including posting questions, collecting data, establishing a goal, making, analyzing, and evaluating a plan of action, implementing the plan, feedback, and modifying the plan. In the specific category, decision-making only represents the step of choosing a specific plan of action out of the entire decision-making process. Also, some scholars understand decision-making as choosing and picking a plan of action underuncertain uncertain conditions. In this case, the choice can be most likely influenced by the decision maker’s prior experience, attitude, and willingness to take a certain amount of risk. Grey decision-making is about making a decision using decision models that involve grey elements or that combine general decision model and grey systems models. Its focus of study is on the problem of choosing a specific plan. In this chapter, we define an event as the problem waiting to be resolved, the eventevent needing to be handled, and the current state of a system’s behavior. Events are where we begin our investigation. Definition 10.1.1 Events, countermeasures, objectives, and effects are known as the four key elements of decision-making. Definition 10.1.2 The totality of all events within the range of a research is known as the set set of events of events of the study, denoted A ¼ fa1 ; a2 ; . . .an g, where ai , i ¼ 1; 2; 3; ; n; stands for the ith event. The totality of all possible countermeasures
© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017 S. Liu et al., Grey Data Analysis, Computational Risk Management, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-1841-1_10
227
228
10
Grey Models for Decision-Making
is known as the set of countermeasures, denoted B ¼ fb1 ; b2 ; ; bm g with bj , j ¼ 1; 2; . . .m; be the jth countermeasure. Definition 10.1.3 The Cartesian product A B ¼ ðai ; bj Þjai 2 A;bj 2 B of the event set A and the countermeasureset set B is known as the set of decision schemes, written as S ¼ A B; where each ordered pair sij ¼ ai ; bj ; for any ai 2 A; bj 2 B; is known as a decision scheme. For example, in the decision-making on what to plant in agriculture, weather conditions can be used as the set of events, with a normal year denoted as a1 , a drought year as a2 , and a flood year as a3 . Then, the set of events is A ¼ fa1 ; a2 ; a3 g Different strains of crops can be seen as countermeasures, with corn denoted as b1 , Chinese sorghum as b2 , soybeans as b3 , sesame b4 , potatoes and yams as b5 , ; then the cou
Data Loading...
