How the Fed Moves Markets Central Bank Analysis for the Modern Era
Central banks have a profound impact on financial markets, and investors struggle to keep informed about their complex policy decisions. Technological and financial developments have transformed the US Federal Reserve Bank from a financial black box into
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EVAN A. SCHNIDMAN & WILLIAM D. MACMILLAN
How the Fed Moves Markets
How the Fed Moves Markets Central Bank Analysis for the Modern Era
Evan A. Schnidman and William D. MacMillan
HOW THE FED MOVES MARKETS
Copyright © Evan A. Schnidman and William D. MacMillan 2016 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2016 978-1-137-43257-5 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission. In accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 2016 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of Nature America, Inc., One New York Plaza, Suite 4500, New York, NY 10004-1562. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. ISBN: 978–1–349–56298–5 E-PDF ISBN: 978–1–137–43258–2 DOI: 10.1057/9781137432582 Distribution in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world is by Palgrave Macmillan®, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record for the book is available from the British Library.
Contents
List of Figures and Tables
vii
Foreword
ix
Introduction
1
PART I 1 2 3 4
Emergence and Evolution: The Story of the Fed
Origins: From Chaos to Structure Independence: Wars, Depression, and Politics Centralization: The Rise of Technocracy Transparency: Data Meets Democracy PART II
9 17 31 39
Fed Watching: Sentiment Analysis and Data-Driven Investing
5 6
The Briefcase Watch: Fed Watching at Its Finest? Data-Driven Fed Watching: Comprehensive, Unbiased, and Quantitative 7 Fixed-Income Investing: Fed Sentiment Drives Bonds 8 Equity Market Investing: Macro Matters 9 Forecasting Policy: Market Response to Fed Communication Trends 10 FOREX Investing: Central Bank Sentiment Data across the Globe
51 59 69 79 89 99
PART III Global Monetary Policy: Analyzing Central Banks around the World 11
ECB Sentiment: Decoding a Complex Monetary Union
115
vi
12 13 14 15
CONTENTS
BOE Sentiment: The Origin of Modern Central Bank Communications BOJ Sentiment: Monetary Clues in Lost Decades RBA Sentiment: Australia as a Pr
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