Impact of COVID-19 prevalence and mode of transmission on mortality cases over WHO regions
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RESEARCH
Impact of COVID-19 prevalence and mode of transmission on mortality cases over WHO regions Olusola Samuel Makinde1* , Olubukola Olayemi Olusola‑Makinde2, Emmanuel Idowu Olamide1 and Gbenga Jacob Abiodun3
Abstract With the current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), countries have been on rising preparedness to detect and isolate any imported and locally transmitted cases of the disease. It is observed that mode of transmission of the disease varies from one country to the other. Recent studies have shown that COVID-19 cases are not influ‑ enced by race and weather conditions. In this study, effect of modes of transmission of COVID-19 is considered with respect to prevalence and mortality counts in World Health Organisation (WHO) regions. Also, a negative binomial model is formulated for new death cases in all WHO regions as a function of confirmed cases, confirmed new cases, total deaths and modes of transmission, with the goal of identifying a model that predicts the total new death cases the best. Results from this study show that there is strong linear relationship among the COVID-19 confirmed cases, total new deaths and mode of transmission in all WHO regions. Findings highlight the significant roles of modes of transmission on total new death cases over WHO regions. Mode of transmission based on community transmission and clusters of cases significantly affects the number of new deaths in WHO regions. Vuong test shows that the for‑ mulated negative binomial model fits the data better than the null model. Keywords: COVID-19, Mode of transmission, Mortality, Predictive model, WHO regions Introduction The on-going pandemic; novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is spreading. All the continents in the world have been affected with daily records of new cases. The causative agent of COVID-19 is a positive-sense singlestranded RNA virus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [6]. Past experiences with disease outbreaks have shown low level of preparedness in Africa, for instance, the disparaging epidemic by Ebola virus from 2014 to 2016 in West Africa [23]. For COVID-19 outbreak, the continent is issuing different schemes to combat continuous spread of the virus; such schemes include (1) screening for the disease on arrivals at airports and some seaports; *Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, P.M.B. 704, Akure, Nigeria Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.
trainings on the detection of COVID-19 at point-ofentry has been carried out across Africa by designated authorities [24]. (2) Accompanied with the provision of resources, risk countries like Egypt have been educated on prevention and control of infection, community participation and management at health centres with respect to COVID-19 [9, 13, 19]. On 14th February, 2020, the first COVID-19 confirmed case was detected in Egypt in
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