Influence of meteorological variables on reference Evapotranspiration in the State of Alagoas, Brazil, based on multivar
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Influence of meteorological variables on reference Evapotranspiration in the State of Alagoas, Brazil, based on multivariate analysis Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho1 · Tatiana Vanessa dos Santos1 · Dimas de Barros Santiago2 · José Francisco de Oliveira‑Júnior1,3 · Ricardo Ferreira Carlos de Amorim1 Received: 10 November 2019 / Accepted: 6 October 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important agro-meteorological parameter used in several meteorological, climatological and hydrological studies. This study aimed to diagnose the effect of the meteorological variables and largescale variability modes in ETo, based on logistic regression models. Monthly data from five conventional meteorological stations located on the State of Alagoas, Brazil, were used: Água Branca, Maceió, Pão de Açúcar, Palmeira dos Índios and Porto de Pedras, from 1960 to 2016 period. The variables used were as follows: temperatures (air—Tair, maximum—Tmax and minimum—Tmin), relative humidity (RH), sea level pressure, sunshine, wind speed (WS), rainfall, evaporation and also two climatic proxies: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and Tropical South Atlantic (TSA). ETo was estimated using the Penman–Monteith FAO method. The binary logistic regression procedure evaluated ETo values below the percentile 75 (ETo75 characterized as 1). Regarding the variables used the percentile 75 (except Tair and rainfall that used the percentile 30). The temperatures were the main variable for ETo75 events, except in Água Branca. The Tmax presented the highest odds ratio (OR) in Palmeira dos Índios with value of 21.10 times on occurrence of ETo75. The wind is the most important variable in Pão de Açúcar, due the heat capacity of the São Francisco River, with OR value of 3.72 times. The ONI did not integrate the models. Based on AIC and ROC curve values, Palmeira dos Índios presented the best model with a value of 195.95 and 0.979, respectively. Keywords Maximum Temperature · Wind speed · Logistic regression model
Introduction Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important agro-meteorological parameter that evaluates water loss through soil evaporation and plant transpiration (Carvalho et al. 2011), and it is also considered a climatic element of water demand with applicability in meteorological, climatological and hydrological * Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho [email protected] 1
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (ICAT), Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Maceió, Alagoas 57072‑260, Brazil
2
Postgraduate Program in Meteorology, Federal University of Campina Grande (UFCG), Campina Grande, Paraíba 58429‑140, Brazil
3
Postgraduate Program in Biosystems Engineering (PGEB), Federal Fluminense University (UFF), Niterói, Rio de Janeiro 24210‑240, Brazil
studies (Lemos Filho et al. 2007; Sentelhas et al. 2010; Vicente-Serrano et al. 2015; Valipour et al. 2017; Dos Santos et al. 2018a, b). ET behavior is associated with a number of factors, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) v
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