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INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN ECONOMIC MODELLING

Series Editor

Homa Motamen-Scobie Executive Director European Economics and Financial Centre London

Economic Modelling in the OECD Countries H. Motamen-Scobie

Modelling the Labour Market M. Beenstock

Input-Output Analysis M. Ciaschini

Models of Disequilibrium and Shortage in Centrally Planned Economies C. Davis and W. Charemza

Economic Modelling at the Bank of England S. G. B. Henry and K. D. Patterson Recent Modelling Approaches in Applied Energy Economics O. Bjerkholt, O. Cblsen and J. Vislie

International Commodity Market Models O. Giivenen, W. C. Labys and J. B. Lesourd Dynamic Models for the Inter-relations of Real and Financial Growth H. Ekstedt and L. Westberg

Economic Models of Trade Unions P. Garonna, P. Mori and P. Tedeschi

International Energy Economics Thomas Sterner

International Trade Modelling M. G. Dagenais and P-A Muek

International Energy Economics Edited by Thomas Sterner Department of Economics, Gothenburg University, Sweden

SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.

© 1992 Springer Scien ce+Bu sine ss Medi a Dordrecht Softcover reprint of the hardcover Ist edition 1992 OriginaUy published by Chapman & HaU in 1992 Chapters 2 and 4: The submitted manuscript has been authored by a contractor of the U.S. Government under contract No. W-31-109-ENG-38. Accordingly, the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, royalty-free license to publish or reproduce the published form of this contribution, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. Typeset IOJI2pt Times by Interprint Ltd, Malta. ISBN 978-94-010-5031-9 ISB N 978-94-011-2334-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/9 78-94-011-2334-1

Apart from an y fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study , or criticism or review, as permitted under the UK Copyright Designs and Patents Act, 1988, this publication may not be reproduced, stored, or transmitted, in any form or by any means , without the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction only in accordance with the terms of the Iicences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency in the UK, or in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the appropriate Reproduction Right s Org anization outside the UK . Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the terms stated here should be sent to the publishers at the London address printed on this page. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or Iiability for any errors or omissions that may be made. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data International energy economicsJedited by Thomas Sterner. - Ist ed. p. cm. - (International studic s in economic modelling) Includes bibliographical references and index.

1. Energy policy. 2. Power rcsour ces-Forecasting. Thomas, 1952- . II. Series. HD9502 .A215774 1992 333.79-dc20

I. Sterner, 91--42590 CIP