Interpreting Economic and Social Data A Foundation of Descriptive St
"Interpreting Economic and Social Data" aims at rehabilitating the descriptive function of socio-economic statistics, bridging the gap between today's statistical theory on one hand, and econometric and mathematical models of society on the other. It
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Othmar W. Winkler
Interpreting Economic and Social Data A Foundation of Descriptive Statistics
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Professor Othmar W. Winkler Georgetown University The McDonough School of Business Washington DC 20057 USA
ISBN 978-3-540-68720-7 e-ISBN 978-3-540-68721-4 DOI 10.1007/978-3-540-68721-4 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2009920218 c Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: WMXDesign GmbH, Heidelberg Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Preface
It is the responsibility of scientists never to suppress knowledge, no matter how awkward that knowledge is, no matter how it may bother those in power. We are not smart enough, to decide which pieces of knowledge are permissible and which are not. . . Carl Sagan∗
Introduction1 On a snowy winter morning I boarded a crowded city bus, unable to use my bicycle for the usual 10 km commute to Georgetown University. In preparation for teaching that morning, I began perusing the textbook on business and economic statistics that I had adopted for this course. At the next stop, a young woman took the seat next to me, the only one remaining in the full bus. Shortly after settling in, she turned to me:: ‘Excuse me sir, is this statistics?’ she motioned to the textbook. ‘Yes’, I responded, surprised, ‘Business- and Economic Statistics.’ At this, a look of revulsion overcame her “Ugh. . . Statistics was the only subject I could never handle in college. . .” She trembled at a memory that still haunted and upset her. At this reaction a series of similar, though less dramatic, occurrences came to mind.2 Few other academic subject seem to evoke the distaste that the mention of statistics seems to elicit. Does it have to be that way?3 I grappled with possible explanations for a long time This book is my response that evolved gradually over decades of teaching a variety of business, economic and general statistics courses, using the newest textbooks available, and being involved in survey work and statistical consulting. I wondered why these textbooks on business and economic statistics presented the subject matter as a watered-down
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