Is Gang Violent Crime More Contagious than Non-Gang Violent Crime?
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Is Gang Violent Crime More Contagious than Non‑Gang Violent Crime? P. Jeffrey Brantingham1 · Baichuan Yuan2 · Denise Herz3 Accepted: 11 September 2020 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Objectives Gangs are thought to enhance participation in violence. It is expected then that gang-related violent crimes trigger additional crimes in a contagious manner, above and beyond what is typical for non-gang violent crime. Methods This paper uses a multivariate self-exciting point process model to estimate the extent of contagious spread of violent crime for both gang-related and non-gang aggravated assaults and homicides in recent data from Los Angeles. The degree of contagious cross-triggering between gang-related and non-gang violent crime is also estimated. Results Gang-related violence triggers twice as many offspring events as non-gang violence and there is little or no cross-triggering. Gang-related offspring events are significantly more lethal than non-gang offspring events, but no more lethal than non-contagious background gang crimes. Conclusions Contagious spread of gang-related violent crime is different from contagion in non-gang violence. The results support crime prevention policies that target the disruption of gang retaliations. Keywords Homicide · Assault · Gangs · Point process · Violence prevention
Introduction The historically low violent crime rates in large- and mid-sized cities today mask the significant challenges posed by criminal street gangs. For example, while the total numbers of homicides per year in Chicago and Los Angeles are significantly below where they were even 10 years ago, the fraction of homicides that are gang-related has remained consistently high (Hutson et al. 1995; Egley and McDaniel 2012; Valasik et al. 2017). That gang * P. Jeffrey Brantingham [email protected] 1
Department of Anthropology, University of California, Los Angeles, 341 Haines Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095‑1553, USA
2
Department of Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles, 520 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095‑1555, USA
3
Department of Criminal Justice and Criminalistics, California State University, Los Angeles, 5151 State University Dr., Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Journal of Quantitative Criminology
crime tends to be more violent than non-gang crime has long been recognized (see Pyrooz et al. 2016). Gang violent crime also tends to be much more lethal than non-gang violent crime (Block and Block 1993). The general thinking is that gangs uniquely motivate a high level of involvement in violent crime. Violence appears to be central to establishing and maintaining the reputation of gangs and their members, in addition to supporting instrumental goals (Short and Strodtbeck 1964; Luckenbill 1977; McGloin and Collins 2015). Gangs may drive both increased numbers of spontaneous acts of violence (i.e., crimes that occur without any obvious trigger) (Tita et al. 2004) and the contagious spread of events in response to pri
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