Mathematical approach to the analysis of terrorism dynamics
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Mathematical approach to the analysis of terrorism dynamics C. Okoye1 · O. C. Collins1 · G. C. E. Mbah1
© Springer Nature Limited 2020
Abstract In pursuance of differing goals and ideologies, nations, religions, political groups rising against themselves have characterized human existence over the years. In recent times, such animosities have widened to the point of dehumanization and wide destruction of properties with threat and fear as strong arsenal. Terrorism has become very prevalent especially its many new forms that use drones and chemical and biological weapons. A mathematical model helps to explain a system (mutable natural occurrences such as dynamics in terrorism) by a painstaking study of different components of terrorists’ splinter cells ranging from foot soldiers, intelligent mission units, kidnappers, and suicide bombers, to make predictions about its behaviour. This work argues the use of mathematical models to study terrorism by providing insights into evolving trends. The specific objective of this study is to investigate how to improve the understanding of the policymakers on terrorism mitigation. The study adopted a mathematical modelling and theoretical design. The mathematical equations formulated were based on the underlying principles of terrorism, which include recruitment, desertion from group, counter-terrorism measures, et cetera. The models were sets of ordinary nonlinear differential equations based on assumptions emanating from the literature reviewed on terrorism. Qualitative analysis and relevant numerical simulations of the model were carried out. The results illustrate new approach on which terrorism can be reduced. Keywords Terrorism dynamics · Mathematical model · Counter-terrorism measures
Introduction Human existence and continuity have faced threat from a variety of sources. In fact, it is characterized by self and societal anarchy and chaos, which might result from biases, hatred, violent ideologies, et cetera. If one bears all of these features in mind, * O. C. Collins [email protected] 1
Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria Vol.:(0123456789)
C. Okoye et al.
some of the complexities of dealing with terrorist organizations become immediately apparent. Any attempt to combat terrorism is usually two-edged: to end existing ones and to forestall new ones from springing up. Indiscriminate threat and violence experienced daily have continued to surge beyond bounds in diverse strains. Terrorist groups have not only continued to exist but their diverse forms of existence prove a humongous nut to crack. This “evil” has taken the form of several species contesting for a specific resource in an ecological niche by keeping hostage communities as parasites. A few years ago, alQaeda was the major terrorist group in operation mainly in Iraq. In recent times, however, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) came up as a splinter cell and has become dominant. Afghanistan and some other countries in the Middle East have had al-Qaeda and al-Sha
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