Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemics with treatment in fractional derivatives using real data from Pakistan
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Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemics with treatment in fractional derivatives using real data from Pakistan Parvaiz Ahmad Naik1,a , Mehmet Yavuz2,3,b , Sania Qureshi4,c , Jian Zu1,d , Stuart Townley3,e 1 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, Shaanxi,
People’s Republic of China
2 Department of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Faculty of Science, Necmettin Erbakan University,
42090 Konya, Turkey
3 Department of Mathematics, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of
Exeter, TR10, Cornwall, UK
4 Department of Basic Sciences and Related Studies, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology,
Jamshoro 76062, Pakistan Received: 27 May 2020 / Accepted: 29 September 2020 © Società Italiana di Fisica and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause different symptoms, from mild cold to severe respiratory distress, and they can be seen in different types of animals such as camels, cattle, cats and bats. Novel coronavirus called COVID-19 is a newly emerged virus that appeared in many countries of the world, but the actual source of the virus is not yet known. The outbreak has caused pandemic with 26,622,706 confirmed infections and 874,708 reported deaths worldwide till August 31, 2020, with 17,717,911 recovered cases. Currently, there exist no vaccines officially approved for the prevention or management of the disease, but alternative drugs meant for HIV, HBV, malaria and some other flus are used to treat this virus. In the present paper, a fractional-order epidemic model with two different operators called the classical Caputo operator and the Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo operator for the transmission of COVID-19 epidemic is proposed and analyzed. The reproduction number R0 is obtained for the prediction and persistence of the disease. The dynamic behavior of the equilibria is studied by using fractional Routh–Hurwitz stability criterion and fractional La Salle invariant principle. Special attention is given to the global dynamics of the equilibria. Moreover, the fitting of parameters through least squares curve fitting technique is performed, and the average absolute relative error between COVID-19 actual cases and the model’s solution for the infectious class is tried to be reduced and the best fitted values of the relevant parameters are achieved. The numerical solution of the proposed COVID-19 fractional-order model under the Caputo operator is obtained by using generalized Adams– Bashforth–Moulton method, whereas for the Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo operator, we have
a e-mail: [email protected] b e-mail: [email protected] c e-mail: [email protected] d e-mail: [email protected] (corresponding author) e e-mail: [email protected]
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used a new numerical scheme. Also, the treatment compartment is included in the population which determines the im
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