Modeling of magnitude and frequency of floods on the Narmada River: India
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Modeling of magnitude and frequency of floods on the Narmada River: India Uttam V. Pawar1 · Pramodkumar S. Hire1 · Rajendra P. Gunjal2 · Archana D. Patil3 Received: 27 March 2020 / Accepted: 2 June 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract The concept of magnitude–frequency was introduced by Fuller, and since then, it has been widely used, especially in Europe and Asia. Over the past, 9–11 decades, several probability distribution models have been developed and applied. The principal objective of the present study is to identify the best-fit magnitude–frequency model at various sites on the Narmada River amongst the Gumbel Extreme Value type I (GEVI) and Log Pearson type III (LP-III). Therefore, Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) and Anderson–Darling (AD) tests of goodness-of-fit were applied to find out best-fit model at each site on the river under review. The result shows that LP-III model is the best fit for Dindori, Manot, Barman, Sandia, Hoshangabad, Handia, and Mandleshwar, and GEVI model is the best fit for the Garudeshwar site. Accordingly, flood magnitudes for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 year return period were predicted. The analysis shows that the return period of largest peak flood on record (69400 m3/s) on the Narmada River at Garudeshwar is 96 years. These models demonstrate satisfactory results for predicting discharges and return periods. In addition to this, magnitude–frequency curves reveal that fitted lines are fairly close to the most of stream flow data points. Therefore, GEVI and LP-III are the best-fit distributions for modeling of magnitude and frequency of floods on the Narmada River. Keywords Narmada River · Best fit · Magnitude–frequency · Return period · Gumbel Extreme Value type I (GEVI) model · Log Pearson type III (LP-III) model
Introduction Flood is the most recurring natural disaster that causes severe damage to human society, environment, and economy (IPCC 2012). Therefore, it is essential to understand the * Pramodkumar S. Hire [email protected] Uttam V. Pawar [email protected] Rajendra P. Gunjal [email protected] Archana D. Patil [email protected] 1
Department of Geography, HPT Arts and RYK Science College, Nashik, Maharashtra 422 005, India
2
Department of Geography, KTHM College, Nashik, Maharashtra 422 002, India
3
Department of Geography, RNC Arts, JDB Commerce and NSC Science College, Nashik, Maharashtra 422 101, India
magnitude and recurrence interval of a flood (Hosking and Wallis 1997). Although statistical and deterministic models usually applied in flood magnitude and frequency investigation, statistical probability models have been widely used in the field of water sciences (Helsel and Hirsch 2010). The concept of magnitude–frequency was introduced by Fuller in (1914). Since then, the concept has been widely used, especially in Europe and Asia (Ward 1978). For over 9–11 decades, several probability distribution models have been developed and applied. Some of the significant probabilistic models a
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