Movement and risk perception: evidence from spatial analysis of mobile phone-based mobility during the COVID-19 lockdown
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Movement and risk perception: evidence from spatial analysis of mobile phone-based mobility during the COVID19 lockdown, Nigeria Olanrewaju Lawal
. Chidozie Nwegbu
Accepted: 26 October 2020 Ó Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The emergence of COVID-19 across the globe prompted many countries to institute total lockdown or other models of mobility restrictions to mitigate the spread of the disease. On March 29th, Nigeria instituted a nationwide lockdown. It is pertinent to understand the pattern created by this lockdown. This could offer insights into how people perceive the hazard and the level of compliance across the States in Nigeria. Mobile phone-based mobility data and the number of new cases from the beginning to the end of the lockdown were utilised. The study examines space-time trends across different place categories at the state level. Place categories witnessed mobility reduction as high as 56%, 57%, 65%, 75%, 38% for retail and recreation (RtRc), Grocery and Pharmacy (GrPh), Park, and Transport Hubs (Trst) respectively. Most States recorded mobility uptrend towards workplace, retail and recreational areas. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) identified two dimensions from the Space-time trends. The first dimension (D1) accounted for 66% of the variance. Examination of the Object Scores from the MCA showed that there are two classes–two risk perception
O. Lawal (&) C. Nwegbu Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Nigeria e-mail: [email protected] C. Nwegbu e-mail: [email protected]
groups. The pattern of mobility recorded shows that there is a variation in mobility restriction compliance across the States. The trend groupings identified captured an aspect of risk perception within each State. Thus, pointing to difference in levels of risk acceptance. With the level of misinformation currently being experienced worldwide, concerted efforts should be made on improving risk perception to prevent the re-emergence of the disease. Keywords Community mobility Risk acceptance Space-time trend Risk perception Mitigation planning
Introduction In December 2019, the news of the outbreak of an emerging viral infection broke in the city of Wuhan, China. The World Health Organisation (WHO) initially declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern and later upgraded it to a global pandemic, following its rapid diffusion to several countries. Currently, the number of global COVID-19 cases has surpassed the 9 million mark while deaths arising from these cases are over 800,000. This has never been seen in contemporary times. It is in fact unlike, the previous outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) of 2003
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and Ebola in West Africa of 2014. COVID-19, within a short period, grew from a local event to a pandemic affecting many people and places. This prompted many countries to institute total lockdown
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