Predictive scoring models for persistent gram-negative bacteremia that reduce the need for follow-up blood cultures: a r
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Predictive scoring models for persistent gram-negative bacteremia that reduce the need for follow-up blood cultures: a retrospective observational cohort study Jongtak Jung1,2, Kyoung-Ho Song1,2* , Kang Il. Jun2, Chang Kyoung Kang2, Nak-Hyun Kim1,2, Pyoeng Gyun Choe2, Wan Beom Park2, Ji Hwan Bang2, Eu Suk Kim1,2, Sang-Won Park2, Nam Joong Kim2, Myoung-don Oh2 and Hong Bin Kim1,2
Abstract Background: Although the risk factors for positive follow-up blood cultures (FUBCs) in gram-negative bacteremia (GNB) have not been investigated extensively, FUBC has been routinely carried out in many acute care hospitals. We attempted to identify the risk factors and develop a predictive scoring model for positive FUBC in GNB cases. Methods: All adults with GNB in a tertiary care hospital were retrospectively identified during a 2-year period, and GNB cases were assigned to eradicable and non-eradicable groups based on whether removal of the source of infection was possible. We performed multivariate logistic analyses to identify risk factors for positive FUBC and built predictive scoring models accordingly. Results: Out of 1473 GNB cases, FUBCs were carried out in 1268 cases, and the results were positive in 122 cases. In case of eradicable source of infection, we assigned points according to the coefficients from the multivariate logistic regression analysis: Extended spectrum beta-lactamase-producing microorganism (+ 1 point), catheter-related bloodstream infection (+ 1), unfavorable treatment response (+ 1), quick sequential organ failure assessment score of 2 points or more (+ 1), administration of effective antibiotics (− 1), and adequate source control (− 2). In case of non-eradicable source of infection, the assigned points were end-stage renal disease on hemodialysis (+ 1), unfavorable treatment response (+ 1), and the administration of effective antibiotics (− 2). The areas under the curves were 0.861 (95% confidence interval [95CI] 0.806–0.916) and 0.792 (95CI, 0.724–0.861), respectively. When we applied a cut-off of 0, the specificities and negative predictive values (NPVs) in the eradicable and non-eradicable sources of infection groups were 95.6/92.6% and 95.5/ 95.0%, respectively. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected] 1 Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, 82, Gumi-ro173 Beon-gil, Bundang-gu, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do 13620, Republic of Korea 2 Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the art
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