Probability, Statistics and Time A collection of essays
Some years ago when I. assembled a number of general articles and lectures on probability and statistics, their publication (Essays in Probability and Statistics, Methuen, London, 1962) received a some what better reception than I had been led to expect
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Probability, Statistics and Time A collection of essays M. S. BARTLETT, F.R.S. Emeritus Professor of Biomathematics University of Oxford
CHAPMAN AND HALL LONDON
• NEW YORK
First published in 1975 by Chapman and Hall Ltd 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE First issued in paperback 1980 Published in the USA by Chapman and Hall in association with Methuen, Inc. 733 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
© 1975 M. S. Bartlett at the University Press, Cambridge ISBN-13: 978-0-412-22260-3 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-5889-0 DOl: 10.1007/978-94-009-5889-0 This paperback edition is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, re-sold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other thall that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser All rights resen·ed. No part of this book may be reprinted, or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, inc/uding photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, withollt permission in writing from the publisher
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Bartlett, Maurice Stevenson, Probability, Statistics and Time (Monographs on Applied Probability and Statistics) 1. Probabilities - Addresses, essays, lectures. 2. Mathematical statistics - Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Title. QA273.l8.B37 519 75-24171
Preface
Some years ago when I. assembled a number of general articles and lectures on probability and statistics, their publication (Essays in Probability and Statistics, Methuen, London, 1962) received a somewhat better reception than I had been led to expect of such a miscellany. I am consequently tempted to risk publishing this second collection, the title I have given it (taken from the first lecture) seeming to me to indicate a coherence in my articles which my publishers might otherwise be inclined to query. As in the first collection, the articles are reprinted chronologically, usually without comment. One exception is the third, not previously published and differing from the original spoken version both slightly where indicated in the text and by the addition of an Appendix. I apologize for the inevitable limitations due to date, and also for any occasional repetition of the discussion (e.g. on Bayesian methods in statistical inference). In particular, readers technically interested in the classification and use of nearest-neighbour models, a topic raised in Appendix II of the fourth article, should also refer to my monograph The Statistical Analysis of Spatial Pattern (Chapman and Hall, London, 1976), where a much more up-to-date account of these models will be found, and, incidentally, a further emphasis, if one is needed, of the common statistical theory of physics and biology. M.S.B.
March 1975
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Contents
page
1. Probability, Statistics and Time (Inaugural lecture at University C
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