Projected changes to wind loads coinciding with rainfall for building design in Canada based on an ensemble of Canadian
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Projected changes to wind loads coinciding with rainfall for building design in Canada based on an ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations Dae Il Jeong 1
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& Alex J. Cannon & Robert J. Morris
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Received: 19 November 2019 / Accepted: 14 May 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
Strong wind coinciding with rainfall is an important weather phenomenon in many science and engineering fields. This study investigates changes in hourly extreme driving rain wind pressure (DRWP)—a climatic variable used in building design in Canada—for future periods of specified global mean temperature change using an ensemble of a Canadian regional climate model (CanRCM4) driven by the Canadian Earth system model (CanESM2) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Evaluation of the model shows that the CanRCM4 ensemble reproduces hourly extreme wind speeds and rainfall (> 1.8 mm/h) occurrence frequency and the associated design (5-year return level) DRWP across Canada well when compared with 130 meteorological stations. Significant increases in future design DRWP are projected over western, eastern, and northern Canada, with the areal extent and relative magnitude of the increases scaling approximately linearly with the amount of global warming. Increases in future rainfall occurrence frequency are driven by the combined effect of increases in precipitation amount and changes in precipitation type from solid to liquid due to increases in air temperature; these are identified as the main factors leading to increases in future design DRWP. Future risk ratios of the design DRWP are highly dependent on those of the rainfall occurrence, which shows large increases over the three regions, while they are partly affected by the increases in future extreme wind speeds over western and northeastern Canada. Increases in DRWP can be an emerging risk for existing buildings, particularly in western, eastern, and northern Canada, and a consideration for managing and designing buildings across Canada. Keywords Climate change . Design buildings . Driving-rain wind pressure . Rainfall . Wind speed
* Dae Il Jeong [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Simultaneous occurrence of wind and rain is an important weather phenomenon in a number of areas, including atmospheric science (Hovind 1965; Johansson and Chen 2003), catchment hydrology (Blocken et al. 2005), agriculture and forestry (Van Stan et al. 2011), soil erosion (Foulds and Warburton 2007), energy infrastructure (Kikuchi et al. 2003), and buildings (Blocken and Carmeliet 2004; Mirrahimi et al. 2015). Strong winds coinciding with rainfall, in particular, have been considered in the design and construction of buildings because wind pressures combined with rainwater can result in severe damage via inflow of water through joints or cracks in the building envelope (National Research Council Canada (NRCC), 2015). Hence, driving-rain wind pressure (DRWP), defined as hourly wind press
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