Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam
This study contributes to the realization of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) by analyzing their implications for the energy production system and the economy and determines the role of renewable energies (RE) in reducing the challenge
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Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam Thanh Tu Tran, Shinichiro Fujimori, and Toshihiko Masui
Abstract This study contributes to the realization of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) by analyzing their implications for the energy production system and the economy and determines the role of renewable energies (RE) in reducing the challenge of committing to the INDCs. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model was used to assess seven scenarios having the same socioeconomic development but different shares of RE in power generation. By comparing different relative reductions caused by the emission constraints vis-a-vis the business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the mitigation costs can be estimated. Results show that the economic impact could be reduced by around 55% in terms of welfare loss (from 6.0 to 2.7%) and by around 36% in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) loss (from 3.4 to 2.1%) through the incorporation of high levels of renewable energy. Furthermore, the additional double deployment of wind and SPV to 5.4% and 12.0%, respectively, which currently comprise 43.1% of the renewable energies used in electricity generation, could reduce the GDP loss from 2.1 to 1.9% and reduce the welfare loss from 2.7 to 1.5% in order to achieve a 25.0% GHG emissions reduction. These losses are less than those in the pricing-only scenario (2.1% and 2.3%, respectively).
T.T. Tran (*) Regional Centre of Expertise on Education for Sustainable Development in Southern Vietnam, International University—Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Quarter 6, Linh Trung Ward, Thu Duc District, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam e-mail: [email protected] S. Fujimori Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16–2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–8506, Japan International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz-1, Laxenburg 2361, Austria e-mail: [email protected] T. Masui Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16–2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–8506, Japan e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017 S. Fujimori et al. (eds.), Post-2020 Climate Action, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-3869-3_11
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Keywords Energy outlook of Vietnam • Intended nationally determined contribution • AIM/CGE model • Power development plan • Renewable energies • Emissions gap
11.1
Introduction
On 12 December 2015, the Conference of the Parties 21 (COP21) in Paris achieved a so-called “historic” or “universal” agreement to combat climate change and unleash actions and investment toward a low-carbon, resilient, and sustainable future. Under this agreement, 195 countries were brought together for the first time to tackle a cause based on their historic, current, and future responsibilities. The main aim was to keep the global temperature rise in this ce
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