Research on Product Recovery Forecast in Remanufacturing Based on Weighted Markov Chain
In order to determine the number of recycled products and solve the uncertain problem in product recovery. This paper used Weighted Markov Chain to establish a forecasting model, set up a classification standard of Markov Chain by using mean–variance meth
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Research on Product Recovery Forecast in Remanufacturing Based on Weighted Markov Chain Zhanfeng Zhou Abstract In order to determine the number of recycled products and solve the uncertain problem in product recovery. This paper used Weighted Markov Chain to establish a forecasting model, set up a classification standard of Markov Chain by using mean–variance method and established the state transition probability matrix through sorting the data, at last predicted the number of recycled steel by regarding the standardized autocorrelation coefficients as weights. The results show that the model is accurate and has a good application.
Keywords Remanufacturing • Product recovery • Weighted markov • Forecast
9.1 Introduction With the development of social economy, more and more countries begin to pay attention to the importance of the recycling utilization of resources and protection of ecological environment problem, how to deal with product recycling, remanufacturing and recycling utilization issues will become the constraints for enterprise long-term development. Remanufacturing is a general term in a series of technical measures and activities including repair and modification of waste products as the guide of product life cycle design and management theory, as the standard of high quality, high efficiency, energy saving, material saving, environmental protection and in order to achieve waste materials performance improvement also known as the “green manufacturing” [1]. Product recovery is the primary condition for remanufacturing [2]. Z. Zhou (*) Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Technological University, Xi’an, China e-mail: [email protected]
W. Du (ed.), Informatics and Management Science I, Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering 204, DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4471-4802-9_9, © Springer-Verlag London 2013
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Current research on remanufacturing product recovery is mainly concentrated in Qualitative analysis, such as analysis and comparison of product recovery mode, formulation of product recovery policy, foundation of product recovery standard and so on. Quantitative prediction on the number of recycled products is still very rare at present. This paper researched the forecast on the number of recycled products on this background [3, 4].
9.2 Recycled Product Forecasting Model The current forecasting methods can be divided into qualitative forecasting methods and quantitative forecasting methods. Qualitative forecasting methods gave a qualitative result on the basis of the statistical data by using visual comparison, so this method was very subjective and inaccurate. Commonly used quantitative forecasting methods were time series analysis method and probability and mathematical statistics method. Remanufacturing in our country just began to develop, historical statistics data about product recovery was insufficient and at the same time, the number of recycled product was influenced by many factors such as economy, market, policy, so it was too random. The time
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