Satellite Breakup Parameter Determination
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tellite Breakup Parameter Determination Felix Hoots1 and Marlon Sorge2
Abstract A satellite breakup can cause collision risk to other resident satellites. If the time, location, and energy content of the breakup can be determined, The Aerospace Corporation has models that can quickly estimate the risk to other resident satellites from the debris. We have developed a method that allows determination of all required breakup parameters within about 12 h after the breakup event. If a large number of radar tracks are available, this timeline could be even shorter. The method then facilitates rapid determination of debris collision risk to resident satellites, providing satellite operators with timely space situational awareness.
Introduction A satellite can break up in orbit because of a collision with another orbiting body or because of an explosion or structural failure. Satellite breakup events can be categorized as: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Collision of two orbiting, cataloged satellites. Intercept of an orbiting satellite by a projectile. Collision of an orbiting satellite with an untracked orbiting particle. Explosion or breakup of an orbiting satellite.
Regardless of the type of breakup event, the resulting fragments can create collision risk to other resident satellites. The US Space Surveillance System has a Space Surveillance Network (SSN) of worldwide radar sites that provides space surveillance of orbiting objects. The SSN can generally track any near Earth object of size 10 to 20 cm or larger. Particles smaller than this size are rarely detected by the radars and are not cataloged by the SSN. However, collision with a fragment in low Earth orbit (LEO) of size 1 cm or larger is likely to be mission-ending. Smaller fragments may cause damage and mission degradation. Fragments not tracked and cataloged by the SSN must be 1 Distinguished Engineer, System Analysis and Simulation, The Aerospace Corporation, 15049 Conference Center Dr., Chantilly, VA 20151. 2 Senior Project Engineer, Space Innovation Directorate, The Aerospace Corporation, 2155 Louisiana Blvd., Albuquerque, NM 87110.
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modeled to determine risk to resident space objects. Risks tend to be highest in LEO in the days immediately after a breakup. When a breakup occurs, the new fragmentation objects are tracked by radars as Uncorrelated Tracks (UCT’s). The tracks are referred to as UCT’s because they contain no information to distinguish which track belongs to which particle. There is a need to correlate tracks that are likely to be on the same object. The general rule of thumb is that one should find at least three tracks on the same piece before a reliable orbit can be produced. The correlated tracks are subjected to an orbit fitting and smoothing process to determine an element set for the particle. This element set then becomes part of a provisional catalog. As other UCTs are collected, an attempt is made to correlate them with the provisional element sets or to formulate new element sets. In this way, the pieces are gradually forme
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