Sensitivity of simulated temperature, precipitation, and global radiation to different WRF configurations over the Carpa
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Sensitivity of simulated temperature, precipitation, and global radiation to different WRF configurations over the Carpathian Basin for regional climate applications Ákos János Varga1 · Hajnalka Breuer1 Received: 6 December 2019 / Accepted: 7 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to produce short-term regional climate simulations with several configurations for the Carpathian Basin region. The goal is to evaluate the performance of the model and analyze its sensitivity to different physical and dynamical settings, and input data. Fifteen experiments were conducted with WRF at 10 km resolution for the year 2013. The simulations differ in terms of configuration options such as the parameterization schemes, the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic dynamical cores, the initial and boundary conditions (ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses), the number of vertical levels, and the length of the spin-up period. E-OBS dataset 2 m temperature, total precipitation, and global radiation are used for validation. Temperature underestimation reaches 4–7 °C for some experiments and can be reduced by certain physics scheme combinations. The cold bias in winter and spring is mainly caused by excessive snowfall and too persistent snow cover, as revealed by comparison with satellite-based observations and a test simulation without snow on the surface. Annual precipitation is overestimated by 0.6–3.8 mm day−1, with biases mainly accumulating in the period driven by large-scale weather processes. Downward shortwave radiation is underestimated all year except in the months dominated by locally forced phenomena (May to August) when a positive bias prevails. The incorporation of downward shortwave radiation to the validation variables increased the understanding of underlying problems with the parameterization schemes and highlighted false model error compensations. Keywords WRF · Regional climate model · Validation · Carpathian Basin · Precipitation
1 Introduction Hungary, located in the Carpathian Basin in Central Europe, lies in the transitional zone between projected increase and decrease in mean summer precipitation by the end of the twenty-first century, according to the ensemble-median of the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations (Jacob et al. 2014; Rajczak and Schär 2017). Even the sign of the change in the warmest season is questionable. Hungarian near- and far-future RCM runs also display large Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05416-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Ákos János Varga [email protected] 1
Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány, 1/A, Budapest 1117, Hungary
uncertainties regarding the prospective shifts in annual and seasonal precipitation amounts (Krüzselyi et al. 2011). In Hungary, four RCMs have been adapted so far: PRECIS and RegCM by the Department of Meteorology at
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