Simulation of seismic ground motion fields via object-oriented spatial statistics with an application in Northern Italy
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Simulation of seismic ground motion fields via object-oriented spatial statistics with an application in Northern Italy Alessandra Menafoglio1
•
Sara Sgobba2 • Giovanni Lanzano2 • Francesca Pacor2
The Author(s) 2020
Abstract This work offers a novel methodological framework to address the problem of generating data-driven earthquake shaking fields at different vibration periods, which are key to support decision making and civil protection planning. We propose to analyse the entire profiles of spectral accelerations and project their information content to unsampled locations in the system, based on the theory of Object Oriented Spatial Statistics. The proposed methodology combines a non-ergodic ground motion model with a fully functional model for the residual term, the latter consisting of (i) the spatially-varying systematic effects due to source, site and path, and (ii) the remaining aleatory error. The proposed methodology allows to generate multiple shaking scenarios conditioned on the data, jointly and consistently for all the vibration periods, overcoming the intrinsic limitations of existing multivariate approaches to the problem. The approach is tested on a vast dataset of ground motion records collected in the study-area of the Po Plain (Northern Italy), for which a region-specific fully nonergodic GMM was previously calibrated. Our validation tests demonstrate the potentiality of the approach, which is capable to effectively simulate spectral acceleration profiles, while keeping the ability to capture the main physical features of ground motion patterns in the region. Keywords Uncertainty quantification Functional data Ground motion models Shaking fields
1 Introduction Seismic shaking maps are tools to support decision making at a given site and a key-topic for civil protection planning and engineering purposes such as for loss assessment and risk analysis. Currently, empirical approaches adopted to simulate seismic shaking fields are based on the use of ground motion models (GMMs), which allow to estimate seismic intensity measures dependent on the vibration period as a function of several parameters related to the
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01847-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. & Alessandra Menafoglio [email protected] 1
MOX, Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy
2
INGV Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Milano, Milan, Italy
reference earthquake scenario (magnitude, distance, soil category, etc.). One of the main hypotheses in the formulation of GMMs is the ergodicity, which states that the variability in ground motion at a single site-source combination is the same as the variability in ground motion observed in a more global dataset (Anderson and Brune 1999; Al-Atik et al. 2010). In recent years, the increasing availability of strong-motion data has allowed to relax this assumption an
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