Solar radiation prediction using multi-gene genetic programming approach
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Solar radiation prediction using multi-gene genetic programming approach Hatice Citakoglu 1
&
Bilal Babayigit 2 & Nese Acanal Haktanir 1
Received: 23 December 2019 / Accepted: 12 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Accurate estimation of solar radiation both spatially and temporally is important for engineering studies related to climate and energy. The multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) is proposed as a new compact method for this purpose, which is verified to yield more accurate solar radiation estimations in Turkey. Meteorological data such as extraterrestrial solar radiation, sunshine duration, mean of monthly maximum sunny hours, long-term mean of monthly maximum air temperatures, long-term mean of monthly minimum air temperatures, monthly mean air temperature, and monthly mean moisture data are selected as the MGGP model inputs. In the prediction models, the meteorological data measured from 163 stations in seven climate areas of Turkey over the period 1975–2015 are used. The MGGP model results for solar radiation prediction are found to be more accurate than the values given by some conventional empirical equations such as Abdalla, Angstrom, and Hargreaves–Samani. The performance of MGGP is also assessed for Turkey by single-data and multi-data models. The multi-data models of MGGP and the calibrated empirical equations are found to be more successful than the single-data models for solar radiation prediction. Keywords Solar radiation . Empirical equations . Multi-gene genetic programming . Turkey
1 Introduction Solar radiation (SR) is the primary energy source of water cycle, and thus, it is one of the key meteorological data having direct effects on developmental stages of plant growth and evapotranspiration (ET). ET is the summation of evaporation from the soil surface and transpiration from the plant leaves, and it is a significant parameter in agricultural and environmental implementations. ET is calculated from various meteorological data including SR. Because of its being and endless form of natural energy, and along with technologic developments such as photovoltaic solar panels, in the last 20 years, SR has been being used as a source of clean and inexhaustible energy in many countries. And, apparently, solar energy will keep being used at an increasing rate. Hence, SR is another kind of renewable energy used in residential establishments * Hatice Citakoglu [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey
2
Department of Computer Engineering, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey
and industrial facilities (Kalogirou et al. 1999). Therefore, SR is a critical variable influencing the hydrological, environmental, agricultural, ecological, and the industrial activities. Satellite-based instruments have directly measured SR since 1978 and demonstrate that on mean, about 1361 W/m2 achieves the top of the Earth’s atmosphere. Parts of the Earth’s surface, air pollution and clouds in the at
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