Spatial Assessment of the Climatic Niche of Daurian Pika
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ial Assessment of the Climatic Niche of Daurian Pika N. G. Borisovaa, *, A. I. Starkova, A. V. Lizunovaa, S. V. Popova, and M. A. Erbajevab aInstitute
of General and Experimental Biology, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ulan-Ude, 670047 Russia b Geological Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ulan-Ude, 670047 Russia *e-mail: [email protected] Received February 20, 2020; revised March 30, 2020; accepted April 1, 2020
Abstract—One basic task of environmental activities under the conditions of rapid climate changes is to determine the degree of species vulnerability to a certain vector of climate changes. Using Maxent 3.4.1 software, this study has modeled the climatic niche of Daurian pika based on 273 points of its contemporary habitat and attempted to determine the pattern of changes in the spatial location of this niche under extreme scenarios of climate development in 2070. It is shown that the best models in terms of statistical validation unsatisfactorily predict the range of the species niche in areas that were not used during the construction of the model and can serve as a climate surrogate at other time periods. A model for the future projection was selected so that it could provide the statistically best projections of the niche range in other areas. The largest contribution to the model construction was made by two variables: annual mean temperature and coefficient of precipitation variation. The constructed model was validated by the direct check of its projections in two ways. (1) A check for the presence of pika in three previously unexplored localities, where the climatic conditions are suitable for the habitation of Daurian pika according to the model, recorded the species only in one locality. It was then found that other abiotic factors in the other two localities proved to be inconsistent with the requirements of the species. (2) A comparison of the projections of the range to the time periods of 140000–120000, 21000, and 6000 years ago with the fossils of the species in the respective periods shows that all currently known localities are within the ranges projected by the model. The expected climate changes do not lead to critical changes in the spread of living conditions for Ochotona dauurica; however, they may lead to noticeable changes in their area pattern, which is particularly pronounced under the RCP 8.5 development scenario (which projects the highest deviation from the existing distribution, a lower suitability of their contemporary habitats, and an increase in their fragmentation). Keywords: Ochotona dauurica, climatic niche, Maxent, validation, future and past projections DOI: 10.1134/S1995425520050030
INTRODUCTION One of the national tasks of Russia as part of carrying out the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 (Aichi biodiversity targets, 2010) is to develop and carry out a set of measures for adapting wildlife to climate changes in a number of regions that are particularly vulnerable to climate alternations, including areas in steppe ecosystem
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