Strategic Foresight A New Look at Scenarios
This book provides students and line managers in organizations with the means to create better scenarios and to use them to create winning business strategies. The book covers scenarios such as: economic outlooks; political environments; acquisitions; dow
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Strategic Foresight A New Look at Scenarios Alfred Marcus
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
Copyright © Alfred Marcus, 2009. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2009 978-0-230-61172-6 All rights reserved. First published in 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-60374-9 ISBN 978-0-230-62265-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230622654 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: July 2009 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Transferred to Digital Printing in 2014
To my wife, my sons, and the next generation and to my friends who survived persecution and dispossession and who made new lives for themselves in new countries. A lesser sage once proclaimed: “You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you just might find you’ ll get what you need.”
Contents
List of Figures and Tables Acknowledgments Introduction Turbulent Times What Is Foresight? The Role of Scenarios—Generating and Testing Strategies Thinking about What Comes Next 1
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Meeting the Challenges of the Future Weaknesses in Scenario Development Involving Every Person Imagining Sequences of Events Hedging against Uncertainties Gamble on the “Most Probable” Outcome Take the “Robust” Route Delay until Further Clarity Emerges Commit with Fallbacks Shape the Future Risk and Uncertainty Looking at Scenarios in a New Way A Tool for Meeting Challenges Boxed Insert: How the Future Affects Commitments Businesses Make Today?
9 9 10 13 14 14 16 16 18 19 21 22 24
Thinking about the Future Rules for Creating Scenarios Start with the Past
27 28 28
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Contents
Move to the Future Rely on Master Narratives Romances Tragedies Comedies Understand the Journey Clarify the Uncertainties Use Diverse Stories for Decision Making Engage Employees
29 30 30 31 32 34 39 41 43
The Challenges Businesses Face What Are the Challenges? How Attractive Are the Options? Repositioning Restructuring Globalization Innovation Does the Organization Have Needed Capabilities? Does the Organization Have Stories about What Might Happen? Can the Organization Identify and Prepare for Surprises? Looking Systematically at the Future
47 48 52 52 52 53 53 59 60 62 62
Population and Security Challenges Looking for “Sweet Spots” Finding Patterns Finding Drivers Attaching Vivid Names Young
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