Suppressing the next crown-of-thorns outbreak on the Great Barrier Reef
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Suppressing the next crown-of-thorns outbreak on the Great Barrier Reef Russell C. Babcock1 • E´va E. Plaga´nyi1 • Scott A. Condie2 • David A. Westcott3 Cameron S. Fletcher3 • Mary C. Bonin4 • Darren Cameron4
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Received: 7 November 2019 / Accepted: 10 July 2020 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) outbreaks are a globally significant driver of coral mortality in the IndoPacific and work synergistically with other disturbances. We argue that our improved understanding of COTS ecology and ability to monitor their populations, combined with new efficiencies in COTS control technologies, provides a sound basis for attempting to suppress COTS outbreaks on the GBR before they reach full outbreak status. This conclusion is based on research on the GBR which we have synthesised to develop a new, pragmatic approach to managing primary outbreaks. We also outline key actions that must be undertaken in order for suppression to be successful, providing clear direction for future management action. The next COTS outbreak on the GBR is predicted to begin between 2025 and 2027, consequently efforts to detect and suppress pre-initiation populations must start no later than the summer of 2022–2023. Keywords Outbreak initiation Pre-outbreak aggregation Cumulative interventions COTS control
Topic Editor Morgan S. Pratchett & Russell C. Babcock [email protected] 1
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, PO Box 2538, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia
2
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
3
CSIRO Land and Water, PO Box 780, Atherton, QLD 4883, Australia
4
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, PO Box 1379, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia
Background Outbreaking populations of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris, hereafter COTS) are defined ecologically as those at densities high enough that starfish consume coral faster than it can grow (Pratchett et al. 2014) and outbreaks on the GBR are characterised by a ‘‘wave’’ of outbreaking populations that travels southwards driven by larval advection on prevailing currents (Pratchett et al. 2014). Outbreaks of COTS on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are one of the main causes of the ongoing coral decline on the world’s largest coral reef system (De’ath et al. 2012; Mellin et al. 2019) and are a major factor in coral decline throughout the Indo-Pacific Region (Pratchett et al. 2014, 2017). The GBR is now experiencing its fourth starfish outbreak since the 1960’s and even considering ongoing major episodes of coral mortality due to bleaching (Hughes et al. 2017) and cyclones (Cheal et al. 2017) mortality due to COTS is likely to continue to be one of the largest contributors to coral decline on the GBR. (Pratchett et al. 2014) Prompted by each outbreak of starfish, successive research programs have been initiated, each aimed at understanding the causes of outbreaks on the GBR: Intergovernmental Committee on the Problem of the Crown-ofThorns Starfish (1969–197
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