The disaster context model and its application in creating disaster scenarios for hospitals
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
The disaster context model and its application in creating disaster scenarios for hospitals Taro Kanno 1
&
Shengxin Hong 1 & Tomoyuki Yamashita 2 & Sachika Sharikura 3
Received: 15 March 2020 / Accepted: 17 September 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Widely applied across many sectors, disaster training and exercises pre-embedded within a society can serve as a driving force for strengthening its disaster resilience. While this traditional system has great potential to enhance social resilience to natural catastrophe, its preparation and implementation requires too much time and effort. To solve this problem, this study proposes a model that can be used to produce and share disaster scenarios, introduces a prototype support system for creating disaster scenarios and exercise materials, and shows evaluations of its potential use. Keywords Disaster exercise preparation . Exercise scenarios . Disaster context model . Collaborative resilience management
1 Introduction Disaster response training and exercises have the potential to enhance the resilience of a society confronted by natural and man-made calamities because they incorporate all four cornerstones of resilience engineering: (1) monitoring, (2) response, (3) learning, and (4) anticipation (Hollnagel 2009). Disaster response training and exercises not only entail a learning process that is expected to improve disaster response abilities but also provide monitoring opportunities to identify flaws and inadequacies in an emergency response system. The preparation of training and disaster scenarios requires the proactive anticipation of possible disaster situations and speculation about likely risks, as well as developing countermeasures. Moreover, because the periodical implementation of training and exercises is mandatory or highly recommended in many sectors (such as government agencies, medical institutions, commercial companies, and local communities), these activities can serve as a * Taro Kanno [email protected] 1
Department of Systems Innovation, School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1138656, Japan
2
Japanese Red Cross Medical Center, 4-1-22 Hiro-o, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 1508935, Japan
3
Showa University Hospital, 1-5-8 Hatanodai, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo 142-8666, Japan
driving force for sustainable and continuous development of the four cornerstones of disaster resilience. However, the achievements reported to date have not been as significant as expected (Hsu et al. 2001, 2004; Williams et al. 2008). While numerous efforts have been invested in creating and delivering training and exercises, their effectiveness has been limited, even though they include various types of drills and exercises (Michael and Chen 2005; KMC 2016; Kobayashi et al. 2008; Yamagawa et al., 2016; Yamori 2012). One of the reasons for this is that insufficient attention has been given to creating scenarios to describe various assumptions about damage and obstacles under the circumstances of a catastrophe. In fact, th
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