The Final Frontier: China, Taiwan, and the United States in Strategic Competition for Central America
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The Final Frontier: China, Taiwan, and the United States in Strategic Competition for Central America Robert A. Portada III 1 & Steve B. Lem 1
& Uttam
Paudel 1
# Journal of Chinese Political Science/Association of Chinese Political Studies 2020
Abstract China’s rise as a global power corresponded with a diminution of Taiwanese diplomacy, which has left Central America as the last region to host a continuous bloc of countries that recognize the ROC. In this article, we argue that China’s success in gaining diplomatic recognition from Taiwan’s former allies has largely resulted from China's economic policy, specifically its promises of large-scale infrastructure projects and the integration of Central American economies with Chinese markets. However, there are limits to how far China has advanced in gaining full recognition from the region. The competing political and economic interests of China, Taiwan, the United States, and the Central American countries themselves, continue to influence patterns of diplomatic switching. More specifically, we argue that the threat of punitive measures from the United States combined with a turn in Taiwanese diplomacy toward assistance efforts to combat Covid-19 may deter future switching in the short to medium-term. Our analysis offers case studies of four Central American countries (Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Nicaragua) to illustrate the multi-year processes by which China’s economic strategy leads to diplomatic switching and examine the paths ahead for the remaining holdouts facing the prospect of economic and political penalties by the United States. Keywords Taiwanese recognition . Dollar diplomacy . Chinese investments in Central
America
* Steve B. Lem [email protected] Robert A. Portada, III [email protected] Uttam Paudel [email protected]
1
Department of Political Science & Public Administration, Kutztown University of Pennsylvania, 15200 Kutztown Road, Kutztown, PA 19530, USA
R. A. Portada III et al.
Introduction The defining shift in the global balance of power in the twenty-first century is the rise of China as a peer competitor to the United States. As China grows closer to superpower status, many scholars (and Chinese leaders themselves) acknowledge that China’s ultimate foreign policy goal, and the primary sign that it will have achieved the status it covets, is the reclamation of sovereignty over Taiwan. [1–4] After Kiribati and the Solomon Islands both broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan and recognized China in September 2019, Taiwan is now recognized by only 15 states, mostly countries in Central America and the micro-states in the Pacific and the Caribbean.1 A central component of China’s strategy to reclaim sovereignty over Taiwan has been to forge economic relationships with the countries that still recognize the Republic of China (ROC) to incentivize them to switch diplomatic recognition to the People’s Republic of China (PRC).2 Indeed, several authors have examined the diminution of Taiwanese diplomacy in the context of China’
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